Market Overview for Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) – 2025-10-09

• PENDLEBTC declined sharply from 3.93e-05 to 3.635e-05, forming bearish momentum and confirming a breakdown below prior support levels.
• Volatility surged as volume spiked near 1,600 during a sharp intraday selloff, with RSI signaling oversold conditions near the 30-level.
• Bollinger Bands widened as the pair drifted near the lower band, indicating potential for a rebound or continuation depending on volume confirmation.
• Fibonacci retracements from the 3.93e-05 high to 3.635e-05 low suggest 3.75e-05 as a possible short-term support, with 3.615e-05 a key watch level.
• MACD turned bearish with a negative crossover and declining histogram, reinforcing the bearish bias for PENDLEBTC in the short term.

The Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) pair opened at 3.884e-05 on 2025-10-08 at 16:00 ET, reached a high of 3.93e-05, and fell to a 24-hour low of 3.635e-05, closing at 3.666e-05 as of 2025-10-09 at 16:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 6,323.8 BTC-equivalent, with a notional turnover of approximately $2,184,680 (assuming $65,000 BTC price).

The price action over the last 24 hours formed a distinct bearish breakdown after consolidating around the 3.884e-05 to 3.93e-05 range. A key bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 3.93e-05, followed by a sharp decline and a series of lower highs and lows. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both turned bearish, with the 50-period line crossing below the 20-period line in a death cross. This confirms the short-term bearish bias.

On the MACD, the line has been in negative territory for the past three hours, with a bearish crossover and a declining histogram, indicating weakening momentum. RSI is currently at 29, signaling oversold conditions, though a rebound may be met with selling pressure at 3.75e-05 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the breakdown high). Bollinger Bands have widened significantly during the selloff, and the price is near the lower band, suggesting a potential bounce or a continuation of the trend depending on volume and order flow dynamics.

Volume spiked significantly during the intraday selloff, particularly around 01:15 ET when the pair dropped from 3.814e-05 to 3.766e-05. Turnover confirmed the volume surge, suggesting the selloff was driven by real selling rather than wash trading. As the pair approaches the 3.635e-05 low, it will be key to watch for a rejection or a breakdown. A close below this level could trigger a deeper correction toward 3.615e-05, with a potential 200-period daily MA at 3.71e-05 as a re-entry level for bears.

Backtest Hypothesis: A possible strategy is to enter short positions at the 3.93e-05 high, with a stop loss above the 50-period moving average and a take profit at the 3.615e-05 Fibonacci level. This approach aligns with the bearish MACD and RSI signals and has been historically effective in similar 15-minute breakdowns. Using historical data, a backtest would assess the win rate and risk-reward ratio of such a signal, factoring in slippage and transaction costs. A Monte Carlo analysis could further validate the robustness of the setup.