Market Overview for Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) – 2025-10-04

• PENDLEBTC declined 1.5% over the last 24 hours, with a low of $0.00003853 and a high of $0.00004054.
• Momentum remains weak, as RSI has dipped below 30, suggesting potential oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded midday, as the pair tested Bollinger Band lows, with heavy selling observed after 17:00 ET.
• Notional turnover surged to $3,542.9 after 16:00 ET, though this was accompanied by minimal price movement, indicating possible accumulation.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the high of the session, signaling short-term bearish bias ahead of potential support at $0.00003853.

Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) opened at $0.00004023 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.00003897 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.00004054 and a low of $0.00003853. The pair recorded total volume of 13,920.6 and notional turnover of $547.07 over the 24-hour period. Price action was bearish across the session, with a notable breakdown after 17:15 ET.

Structure & Formations

The daily candle formed a long bearish shadow, with a bearish engulfing pattern at $0.00004054 indicating strong short-term bearish sentiment. A doji near $0.00003978 signaled indecision, though bearish pressure reemerged later in the session. Key support levels are forming at $0.00003853 (low of session) and $0.00003911, while the immediate resistance lies at $0.00003978 and $0.00004034. The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart has crossed below the 50-period MA, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (0.00003997) crossed below the 50-period MA (0.00004013), confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, PENDLEBTC is trading below the 50-period MA (0.00003985), as well as the 100-period MA (0.00003991) and 200-period MA (0.00003975), indicating a broader bearish trend. These indicators suggest that the short- and medium-term trend is bearish, with further downside potential unless the price breaks above the 50-period MA.

MACD & RSI

The 12-26 MACD line crossed below the signal line mid-session, forming a bearish crossover. The RSI has dropped below 30, suggesting oversold conditions, though divergence between price and RSI at the session low implies accumulation could be occurring. Momentum appears to be weakening, but a rebound may be expected if buying pressure builds near the $0.00003853 level.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded midday, with the upper band reaching $0.00004054 and the lower band hitting $0.00003853. Price spent a significant portion of the session near the lower band, suggesting oversold conditions and potential for a short-term bounce. A contraction in the Bollinger Bands is unlikely in the near term, as volatility remains elevated.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was highly concentrated in the midday sell-off, with a large spike of 755.7 at 17:15 ET and another of 1,392.9 at 16:00 ET. Notional turnover was minimal despite heavy volume at the session low, suggesting potential accumulation by longs. A divergence between volume and price movement is evident in the final hours of the session, with heavy volume not translating into a rebound, which could be a sign of capitulation by short-term traders.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the key swing high at $0.00004054 and swing low at $0.00003853, the 38.2% retracement level is at $0.00003965 and the 61.8% at $0.00003921. These levels have shown some initial resistance and support, with the 38.2% level being tested multiple times. If the price breaks below the 61.8% level, the next target is the $0.00003853 low.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a mean-reversion approach triggered by the RSI dropping below 30 and the price testing the lower Bollinger Band. Given the current divergence between volume and price at the session low, a long entry near $0.00003853 with a target at the 38.2% retracement level of $0.00003965 and a stop-loss at $0.00003800 may be considered. This setup would capitalize on potential accumulation and a short-term bounce while managing risk with a defined exit.