Market Overview for Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) on 2025-10-03

• PENDLEBTC opened at $0.00004117 and closed at $0.00004083 over 24 hours, with a high of $0.00004200 and low of $0.00004057.
• Volatility increased midday, but a late sell-off brought price back to a bearish close, with volume peaking at ~7,400.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions early before a reversal, while Bollinger Bands showed moderate contraction.
• Volume spiked in two key clusters—post-19:15 ET and 07:00–07:45 ET—without consistent price confirmation.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed in the final hour, hinting at a potential short-term reversal or consolidation.

Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) opened at $0.00004117 (12:00 ET–1) and reached an intraday high of $0.00004200 before closing at $0.00004083 (12:00 ET) on a bearish note. The pair traded between $0.00004057 and $0.00004200, with a total volume of 8,476.3 and a notional turnover of approximately $0.342 in 24 hours. Price action reflected a morning rally followed by a late sell-off that reversed most of the gains.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were observed at $0.00004060 and $0.00004035, with a minor resistance at $0.00004150. A bearish engulfing pattern formed in the final hour, suggesting exhaustion in the bullish trend. A doji appeared at 07:00 ET, signaling indecision at a turning point during the late sell-off. A key swing low occurred at 22:30 ET, with price rebounding from $0.00004151 amid high volume.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA moved above the 50-period MA briefly during the morning rally, indicating short-term bullish momentum. However, both MAs declined as the trend reversed. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period MA, reinforcing a bearish bias. The 200-period MA remained below the 100-period MA, suggesting a longer-term downtrend remains intact.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a divergence between the histogram and price action during the late sell-off, with a bearish crossover confirming the reversal. RSI peaked at 68 early in the session, suggesting overbought conditions, before dropping below 50 in the final hour, indicating bearish momentum. A potential oversold condition approached at 07:00 ET, but the lack of follow-through buying suggests limited buying interest at lower levels.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction during the 04:00–06:00 ET period, indicating a potential breakout. However, the price broke to the downside rather than the upside, and the bands expanded again during the late sell-off. Price remained within the bands for most of the session, suggesting continued range-bound activity.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 19:15 ET (5420.6) during a rally and again at 07:00–07:45 ET (10,150.8), when the price dropped sharply. The latter spike coincided with a 2.4% drop in price but failed to confirm strong bearish conviction. The volume-to-price divergence suggests that selling pressure may not be fully sustained. A high-volume cluster at 22:30 ET coincided with a key swing low, indicating strong support.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 19:15–07:00 ET swing, the 61.8% level (~$0.00004130) acted as a pivot point for the bearish reversal. The 38.2% level (~$0.00004170) saw a brief bounce before the price continued lower. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of a previous 30-day swing sits at $0.00004150, where the pair encountered resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential short-term trading strategy could target the 61.8% Fibonacci level as a dynamic pivot point for a sell bias. Entry could be triggered on a bearish confirmation pattern (e.g., a bearish engulfing or doji) below this level, with a stop above the 50-period MA. Given the recent volume behavior and RSI divergence, a 2–4% target is reasonable for a 15–30-minute reversal trade. A backtest would assess how well this strategy performs on previous similar price structures, particularly during consolidation before a breakout.