Market Overview for Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) – 2025-09-25

• Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) closed 8.3% lower over the past 24 hours amid sustained bearish momentum and volume expansion.
• Key support levels were tested around 4.092e-05, with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement aligning near 4.117e-05, suggesting potential short-term stability.
• Volatility expanded during Asian hours, with a notable 944.3 volume spike coinciding with a sharp price drop to 4.024e-05.
• RSI entered oversold territory (<30) in the last 4 hours, signaling a potential short-term bounce, though bearish MACD divergences persist.

The 24-hour PENDLEBTC candle opened at 4.286e-05 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 4.286e-05, dropped to a low of 4.024e-05, and closed at 4.117e-05 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. Total volume over the period was 9,443 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $404,957 (using 4.117e-05 as reference close). The price action reflects a broad bearish sentiment, with a significant drop occurring during the early morning hours on 2025-09-25.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels appear to have been tested around 4.092e-05 and 4.079e-05, with a potential short-term pivot forming at 4.117e-05. A notable bearish engulfing pattern developed during the 2025-09-25 12:00–12:15 ET window, closing near the bottom of the range. A series of lower highs and lower lows from 4.286e-05 to 4.024e-05 suggests a broader bearish trend with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement aligning near 4.117e-05, indicating possible consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages are both bearish, with the 50-period line cutting through the 20-period below the close. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages remain in a descending alignment, reinforcing the long-term bearish bias. These indicators suggest that the price may remain below the moving average cluster for the next 24 hours, barring a sharp reversal.

MACD & RSI

MACD remains bearish with a negative histogram and the signal line crossing below zero. The RSI reached oversold territory (<30) around 12:00 ET, suggesting a short-term bounce could be near. However, the RSI and MACD appear to be diverging from the price action—price made a new low at 4.024e-05 while RSI did not, which may indicate a deeper correction is still likely.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the Asian session, with the price moving below the lower Bollinger Band for an extended period. The bands have since widened, and the price has remained within the lower half of the range, suggesting a continuation of the bearish phase. A retest of the lower band may provide a buying opportunity for short-term traders.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 12:30 ET, coinciding with the price drop to 4.024e-05. This suggests a wave of selling pressure, possibly from stop-loss triggers or institutional activity. Turnover expanded alongside the price move, confirming the bearish breakout. Divergences between volume and price are not evident; however, the absence of follow-through buying above 4.15e-05 remains a concern.

Fibonacci Retracements

A retracement of the 4.286e-05 to 4.024e-05 move places key levels at 38.2% (4.184e-05) and 61.8% (4.117e-05). The 61.8% level is currently acting as a pivot point. A break below 4.092e-05 could lead to a test of 4.079e-05 and then 4.065e-05. A retest of the 38.2% level may trigger a counter-trend bounce, but this is more speculative without a clear volume confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum and oversold RSI conditions, a potential short-term bounce could be captured with a simple mean-reversion strategy: entering a long position on a close above the 61.8% Fibonacci level (4.117e-05) with a stop-loss below the 4.092e-05 pivot. A take-profit target could be set at the 38.2% level (4.184e-05). This setup aligns with the RSI divergence and Bollinger Band contraction seen during the morning hours. The MACD remains bearish, so this trade should be treated as a short-term countertrend opportunity with a strict exit plan.