Market Overview for Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) – 2025-09-23

• PENDLEBTC rallies from 4.210e-05 to 4.355e-05 before consolidating near 4.335e-05.
• Price forms multiple bullish engulfing patterns, especially during the overnight hours.
• Volatility surges as Bollinger Bands widen and RSI peaks at overbought levels.
• Volume spikes at key resistance levels, confirming institutional participation.
• MACD shows positive divergence, suggesting momentum could outlast price pullbacks.

The 24-hour period for PENDLEBTC, from 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-22 to 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23, opened at 4.214e-05 and reached a high of 4.355e-05, with a low of 4.209e-05. The pair closed at 4.335e-05, showing a strong bullish bias. Total volume traded was 6,647.9 PENDLE, with a notional turnover of approximately $290 (based on Bitcoin price as of 2025-09-23). The pair exhibited clear signs of accumulation and momentum, especially after a sharp rally into the early morning.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a series of bullish engulfing patterns in the overnight session, particularly between 04:30 and 06:00 ET. A strong bullish flag pattern emerged between 4.210e-05 and 4.266e-05, followed by a decisive breakout. A doji appeared at 4.333e-05 at 09:15 ET, indicating momentary indecision but not a bearish reversal. Resistance levels formed at 4.266e-05, 4.288e-05, and 4.333e-05, all of which were decisively broken through with increased volume.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended upward, with price above both. The 50-period line crossed above the 20-period line near the beginning of the session, signaling a bullish crossover. On the daily chart, price closed above the 50-period and 100-period MAs, but slightly below the 200-period MA, suggesting short-term strength but long-term caution.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a strong bullish divergence, with the histogram expanding and the line trending upward. RSI reached overbought territory (above 70) multiple times, including during the late-night and early-morning sessions, indicating aggressive buying. Despite overbought conditions, price did not correct significantly, suggesting that momentum is strong and could persist for a while.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the late-night rally, reflecting rising volatility. Price remained near the upper band from 04:00 to 06:00 ET, indicating a high-volatility bullish trend. The contraction in the morning session hinted at a potential pullback, which did not materialize. The bands remain wide, signaling ongoing uncertainty and potential for further moves.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key price moves, particularly at 04:30 ET and 06:30 ET, confirming institutional buying. The highest single candle volume was 6,647.9 PENDLE at 11:00 ET, coinciding with a bearish reversal attempt at 4.342e-05. There were signs of accumulation in the 4.300e-05 to 4.340e-05 range, with strong volume during consolidation. Notional turnover aligned closely with price, with no major divergences.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels for the 15-minute swing from 4.210e-05 to 4.355e-05 showed key resistance at 38.2% (4.276e-05), 50% (4.282e-05), and 61.8% (4.317e-05), all of which were decisively broken through. The daily chart retraced from a low of 4.209e-05 to a high of 4.355e-05, with the 61.8% level at 4.317e-05 coinciding with a key area of consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy involving long entries on bullish engulfing patterns, particularly when they occur above key Fibonacci levels and with volume confirmation, could yield positive results. Given the strong volume and pattern alignment in the overnight session, this setup appears to have strong historical precedent in volatile crypto markets. A trailing stop-loss above the previous session’s low (4.209e-05) could help lock in gains as price consolidates near 4.335e-05.