Market Overview for Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) – 2025-09-19

• PENDLEBTC declined 2.3% over 24 hours, closing at 4.33e-05 after a bearish reversal from 4.59e-05.
• Volatility expanded sharply in the early session, but momentum weakened into the late hours.
• A key support level formed near 4.267e-05, while resistance appears at 4.42e-05.
• Volume spiked during the price decline, suggesting strong bearish conviction.
• RSI entered oversold territory late in the session, signaling potential short-term buying interest.

Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) opened at 4.506e-05 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and traded to a high of 4.615e-05 and a low of 4.267e-05 before closing at 4.33e-05 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 9,376.4, with notional turnover of approximately 0.408 BTC (calculated as volume × average close price of 4.356e-05).

The price action formed a bearish divergence from the early high of 4.615e-05, with a key bearish engulfing pattern forming near 4.59e-05 as price collapsed toward 4.417e-05. A doji formed at 4.42e-05, indicating indecision at this level. The most immediate support appears to be at 4.33e-05 and 4.267e-05, both of which have been tested and held. Resistance levels are likely to appear at 4.42e-05 and 4.48e-05, with the latter having previously contained upward movement multiple times.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a 20-period MA (4.44e-05) and 50-period MA (4.43e-05), both trending lower as price action fell beneath them. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 4.49e-05, with the 200-period MA at 4.52e-05, placing the current close slightly below both. This suggests a potential continuation of bearish momentum unless the price breaks above 4.48e-05 to retest the 40-day MA.

The RSI closed near 30, suggesting the pair may be oversold and could see a short-term rebound. However, the MACD line (−0.000000003) remains below the signal line (−0.000000002), with the histogram shrinking as bearish momentum slows. Bollinger Bands show a moderate expansion in volatility, with price sitting near the lower band at 4.33e-05, indicating potential support at this level. Fibonacci retracements from the 4.615e-05 high to the 4.267e-05 low show key levels at 4.445e-05 (38.2%) and 4.340e-05 (61.8%), which align with recent price behavior.

The backtesting strategy provided focuses on a combination of RSI divergence and volume confirmation. Given the current RSI divergence (price low, RSI low) and strong bearish volume during the decline, this strategy would likely have triggered a short signal. The doji at 4.42e-05 and subsequent decline to 4.33e-05 align with the strategy’s parameters. If implemented, this approach would seek to capitalize on the weakening momentum and confirmatory volume seen in the late hours.