Market Overview for Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) – 2025-09-18

• Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) closed at 4.366e-05, slightly below the day’s high of 4.505e-05 and above the low of 4.255e-05.
• A key resistance level appears near 4.475e-05, while a strong support is forming around 4.34e-05.
• Volume surged to 4,590.4 in a bullish 15-minute candle, suggesting buying pressure at key levels.
• RSI remained neutral, and MACD showed a positive crossover, hinting at potential upside.
• Volatility expanded in the afternoon with a Bollinger Band breakout, reinforcing the recent bullish momentum.

Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) opened the 24-hour period at 4.269e-05 and closed at 4.366e-05 by 12:00 ET. The pair hit a high of 4.505e-05 and a low of 4.255e-05. Total volume for the session was 116,393.3, and notional turnover reached approximately 5,095,944.9 (calculated using volume × average price).

The structure of the past 24 hours reveals a key support area forming near 4.34e-05, with several consolidating candlestick patterns indicating potential buying interest at that level. On the higher side, resistance appears to be forming around 4.475e-05, where a bearish rejection occurred after a sharp rally. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged in the mid-afternoon, suggesting short-term buyers are entering the market after a period of consolidation.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the 20-period line crossing above the 50-period line in the late morning, signaling a potential short-term bullish bias. The 50-period daily MA is also showing a slight upward trend. MACD lines crossed into positive territory in the morning and remained bullish for much of the session, while RSI fluctuated between 45 and 60, staying in a neutral range without entering overbought or oversold territory. Volatility increased in the late afternoon with a Bollinger Band expansion, and prices briefly closed above the upper band before retracing.

Fibonacci retracements drawn on the 15-minute swing from 4.255e-05 to 4.505e-05 indicate potential pullback levels at 4.407e-05 (38.2%) and 4.341e-05 (61.8%). Price action suggests a test of the 61.8% level is likely in the next 24 hours.

Looking ahead, the market appears to be building momentum with a higher probability of a test on the 4.475e-05 resistance level. However, traders should remain cautious about a potential pullback to the 4.34e-05 support zone. A failure to hold that level could trigger a retest of the 4.255e-05 low.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart and confirming with a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. The stop-loss is placed below the 4.34e-05 support level, with a target at 4.475e-05. This setup aligns with today’s observed price action, where the 20/50 crossover was followed by a strong bullish candle in the afternoon, providing a natural entry for traders. The strategy may be most effective in markets showing increasing volatility, as seen in the Bollinger Band expansion and volume spikes observed during the session.