Market Overview for Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) on 2025-09-17

• Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) formed a bullish reversal pattern after a bearish breakdown, with price rebounding above key support.
• Momentum remains mixed, with RSI fluctuating between overbought and neutral levels, suggesting indecisive short-term sentiment.
• Volatility has decreased, as seen in tightening Bollinger Bands, but volume surged during key price inflections.
• Turnover and volume aligned on breakout moves, offering some confirmation of trend continuation potential.
• Fibonacci levels highlight potential near-term support at 4.250e-05 and resistance at 4.300e-05, aligning with recent highs.

Market Summary

Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) opened at 4.163e-05 on 2025-09-16 12:00 ET and closed at 4.250e-05 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 4.338e-05 and a low of 4.159e-05. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 8,394.3 units, with notional turnover totaling 356.68 BTC equivalents.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart showed a bearish breakdown attempt followed by a bullish reversal, particularly notable between 2025-09-16 18:30 and 2025-09-17 02:45 ET, where PENDLEBTC rallied from a local low of 4.249e-05 to a high of 4.287e-05. A key support level appeared at 4.250e-05, reinforced by a bullish engulfing pattern and a doji near 05:00 ET.

A minor resistance cluster formed between 4.290e-05 and 4.300e-05, where price stalled twice, suggesting a potential ceiling for near-term buyers.

Moving Averages & Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed near the 4.260e-05 level, indicating a shift in short-term bias. The 50SMA currently sits at 4.265e-05, while the 20SMA is at 4.272e-05, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward trend if price holds above 4.260e-05.

The daily chart showed the 50DMA at 4.255e-05 and 200DMA at 4.242e-05, with current price above both, signaling a bullish bias.

The MACD crossed above the signal line early on, indicating growing bullish momentum, but has since consolidated near the zero line, suggesting a pause in directional pressure. RSI fluctuated between 55 and 65, suggesting a balanced market but no clear overbought condition.

Bollinger Bands & Fibonacci

Bollinger Bands contracted between 04:00 and 05:00 ET, signaling a potential breakout. Price broke above the upper band at 4.288e-05, confirming higher volatility and a potential reversal.

Fibonacci retracement levels showed the 61.8% level at 4.250e-05 acting as strong support. The 38.2% retracement at 4.290e-05 is likely to face selling pressure if the price tests it again.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was notably higher during key price inflection points, especially between 18:30 and 19:00 ET and again between 22:45 and 23:00 ET, where price surged to 4.338e-05. Turnover and volume aligned on these moves, adding credibility to the breakouts.

However, a divergence appeared during the early morning hours when price hit 4.287e-05 but volume dropped, suggesting a possible exhaustion in the upward move.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy suggests a mean-reversion approach triggered by the 20SMA crossing below the 50SMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below key support levels identified via Fibonacci and Bollinger Bands. If confirmed, such a strategy could capitalize on short-term price corrections while managing risk through tight stop levels.