Market Overview for Peanut the Squirrel/Bitcoin (PNUTBTC)

• Price opened at $2.29e-6, touched a high of $2.31e-6 and a low of $2.13e-6, closing at $2.15e-6.
• Momentum shifted from bearish to neutral, with RSI indicating oversold conditions by the 24-hour close.
• Volatility expanded during the late night, particularly between 02:00 and 05:00 ET.
• Volume surged during key price breaks, confirming downward movement but showing divergences in strength during bounces.
• Bollinger Bands expanded after 02:00 ET, indicating rising volatility and a lack of directional clarity.

Peanut the Squirrel/Bitcoin (PNUTBTC) opened at $2.29e-6 on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET, reaching a 24-hour high of $2.31e-6 and a low of $2.13e-06 before closing at $2.15e-6 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume was 386,269.7 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $868.05 USD (based on average price of $2.25e-6).

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a bearish bias with multiple lower highs and lower lows. Notable support appears around $2.13e-6 to $2.15e-6, while resistance is visible at $2.27e-6 and $2.29e-6. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 02:15–02:30 ET as price broke below a prior consolidation range. A doji appeared near the close of the 05:00 candle, indicating indecision in the market.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20SMA at $2.18e-6 and the 50SMA at $2.20e-6, suggesting continued bearish pressure. The daily chart shows price below the 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA, reinforcing the downtrend. A retest of the 50DMA could trigger a short-term bounce, but a sustained close above it appears unlikely in the immediate term.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in negative territory throughout the 24-hour period, with a bearish crossover confirming the downtrend. RSI dipped into oversold territory near the end of the period (~25), suggesting the potential for a corrective move. However, bearish divergence in volume during attempted rallies suggests that any recovery may be short-lived.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 02:00 ET, with the bands widening as price moved between the lower and middle band. A sharp move downward during 04:15–04:30 ET saw price briefly touch the lower band, suggesting possible oversold conditions. The current price sits closer to the lower band, indicating continued bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during key price breaks, especially between 02:15–03:00 ET and again between 04:15–05:00 ET, confirming the downward momentum during those periods. However, turnover during attempted rallies was weak, indicating a lack of buying interest. This divergence suggests caution for traders expecting a reversal in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute swing high at $2.29e-6 and the low at $2.13e-6, the 61.8% level is around $2.18e-6. Price closed just below this level, suggesting it could serve as short-term resistance on any bounce. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the broader downtrend is at $2.25e-6, which could also act as a short-term ceiling.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position when price breaks below the 50SMA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish MACD crossover and a RSI move below 30. A stop-loss could be placed above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, with a target at the next major support level. This approach would aim to capitalize on short-term bearish momentum while using technical levels for risk management.