Market Overview: Peanut the Squirrel/Bitcoin (PNUTBTC) - 2025-10-11 24-Hour Analysis

• PNUTBTC fell to a 24-hour low of $0.000000129 amid a sharp selloff late Friday.
• Volume surged during the breakdown, confirming bearish momentum.
• Price action appears to have broken key support levels.
• RSI and MACD both signaled overbought conditions earlier, followed by bearish divergence.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff, suggesting heightened market uncertainty.

The PNUTBTC pair opened at $0.000000161 on October 10 at 12:00 ET and reached an intraday high of $0.000000160 before plunging to a low of $0.000000129 late in the session. It closed at $0.000000127 at 12:00 ET on October 11. The total volume over the 24-hour period was 699,841.0 contracts, and the total notional turnover was $743.53. The price action reflects a sharp bearish move, especially after 6:00 PM ET on Friday.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick chart reveals a strong bearish structure with key support and resistance levels clearly defined. The most notable breakdown occurred after 8:00 PM ET when the price fell below $0.000000157, triggering a cascading sell-off. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed during this phase, confirming the shift in sentiment. A doji appeared briefly at the top of the range, signaling indecision before the move down. This breakdown appears to have invalidated earlier support zones, with the next critical level likely near $0.000000125.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below the price level during the selloff, confirming bearish momentum. The 50-period MA now sits near $0.000000134, slightly above current price levels, while the 20-period MA is even closer to the price. For daily analysis, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period MAs all trended downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. The price appears to be trending below all three, suggesting further downward pressure may persist unless a strong reversal emerges.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned sharply negative after 8:00 PM ET, with the histogram reflecting a significant bearish divergence. The RSI moved into oversold territory during the selloff, dipping below 30 by 10:00 PM ET. However, this is more of a lagging indicator in the context of such a rapid move and may not trigger a meaningful bounce without a clear reversal candle or a retest of support. Momentum remains bearish with no immediate signs of stabilization.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the selloff, with the price falling below the lower Bollinger Band at around $0.000000130. This expansion indicates heightened uncertainty and increased trading activity. Prior to the breakdown, volatility had been relatively narrow, indicating a period of consolidation before the sharp drop. The current price is near the lower band, which may act as a temporary floor if buyers enter the market. However, without a clear bullish reversal pattern, a further breakdown seems possible.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the breakdown phase, especially around 9:00 PM ET when the price dropped to $0.000000132. This increase in volume confirms the bearish move and suggests strong selling pressure. The notional turnover also increased during this time, aligning with the price movement. There was no noticeable divergence between volume and price during the sell-off, indicating the move was well supported by liquidity. However, the lack of follow-through buying near the lows raises concerns about the durability of any potential bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing, the 61.8% level was breached during the selloff, indicating a significant bearish move. The next key retracement level is at the 78.6% level, near $0.000000125, which could act as the next target if the trend continues. On the daily chart, the 50% Fibonacci level has been broken, with the 61.8% level now acting as a potential destination for further price declines.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves identifying bearish engulfing patterns forming after a consolidation phase, with a stop-loss placed above the high of the pattern and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior bullish swing. Given today’s price action, the bearish engulfing pattern formed after 8:00 PM ET fits this criteria. A stop-loss above $0.000000157 and a target at $0.000000125 aligns well with the observed move. While the immediate trend supports the strategy, caution is advised near current levels due to the potential for mean reversion or short-covering rallies.