Market Overview for Peanut the Squirrel/Bitcoin (PNUTBTC) — 2025-10-07

• Price drifted lower from 1.85e-06 to 1.72e-06, closing near 1.72e-06 at 12:00 ET.
• A bearish trend is supported by declining RSI and a breakdown below key 1.76e-06 support.
• Volume spiked during late-night and morning hours, signaling increased selling pressure.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate contraction, suggesting low volatility.
• No strong reversal patterns emerged, with price consolidating below the 20-period MA.

At 12:00 ET on October 7, 2025, Peanut the Squirrel/Bitcoin (PNUTBTC) opened at 1.82e-06, reached a high of 1.85e-06, and fell to a low of 1.71e-06 before closing at 1.72e-06. The total volume over the 24-hour period was 114,960.3 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $201.26 (based on BTC volume and price proxy).

Structure and formations over the past 24 hours indicate a consistent bearish bias, with multiple bearish candles and a clear breakdown below the 1.76e-06 support level. A key resistance area appears near 1.78e-06, which has been tested and rejected multiple times. Notable bearish candlestick patterns include a dark cloud cover at 1.83e-06 and a bearish engulfing at 1.79e-06, both of which could signal further downward momentum. A bearish reversal pattern is forming at 1.76e-06, reinforcing the possibility of continued selling pressure.

The 15-minute 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA early in the session, confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA continues to decline and is now below the 100- and 200-period MAs, indicating a strong bearish bias in the medium term. Price is now trading below all three, reinforcing the downtrend and suggesting that further consolidation or additional bearish momentum may follow.

The RSI (14-period) has been in an oversold zone for most of the session, hovering near 30 at 12:00 ET, which suggests that the downward move may be exhausting short-term bearish momentum. However, the MACD (12,26,9) remains negative, with the signal line below the histogram, indicating that bearish momentum is still intact. The RSI and MACD show no signs of divergence, which could suggest continued selling pressure. If the RSI rises above 40 without a strong price rebound, it may signal a temporary pause in the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands have remained relatively stable, with a moderate width indicating average volatility. Price has spent much of the session near the lower band, especially after breaking down from 1.76e-06. This suggests that the market is testing the lower boundary of its range, and a close below 1.71e-06 could trigger a wider band expansion, signaling increased volatility. A retest of the upper band at 1.79e-06 could offer a potential countertrend entry, but bearish continuation appears more likely.

Volume and turnover have been concentrated in the early morning and late-night hours, particularly around 4:30 AM and 9:15 AM ET. During these periods, volume spikes coincided with sharp price declines, suggesting increased participation from sellers. However, in the midday hours, volume dropped significantly, which may indicate a lack of immediate follow-through in the bearish move. A divergence between price and volume has not yet formed, so the bearish thesis remains intact for now.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the high of 1.85e-06 to the low of 1.71e-06 show that the current price is near the 61.8% retracement level (~1.73e-06). A close below 1.72e-06 could target the 78.6% level (~1.71e-06), while a rebound above 1.73e-06 might retest the 50% level (~1.78e-06). Daily retracements also reinforce the 1.78e-06 level as a potential resistance, with 1.76e-06 acting as a key support to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the confirmed bearish trend and the breakdown below key support, a possible backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on a close below 1.71e-06 with a stop-loss above the 1.76e-06 resistance. A tight stop-loss helps mitigate risk, while the 1.73e-06 level (~61.8% Fib) offers a potential short-term target. Trailing stops could be used as the pair moves lower. A long entry may only be considered if the price rebounds above 1.76e-06 with strong volume and a breakout above the 1.78e-06 level.