Market Overview for Peanut the Squirrel/Bitcoin (PNUTBTC) on 2025-10-04

• Price dropped from 1.86e-06 to 1.75e-06 over 24 hours, closing near the day’s low.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions, but price remains in a bearish trend.
• Volume spiked mid-day before fading, with no clear reversal confirmation.
• Bollinger Bands show increasing contraction, hinting at low volatility.
• 15-minute chart highlights a breakdown below key support at 1.82e-06.

The pair Peanut the Squirrel/Bitcoin (PNUTBTC) opened at 1.82e-06 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.75e-06 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET. The high was 1.86e-06, and the low was 1.74e-06. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 190,864.8, and total notional turnover was $345.5 (approx. USD equivalent using Bitcoin prices, assuming $55,000 for BTC).

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a clear breakdown below key psychological support at 1.82e-06, with the price failing to recover above it after the mid-day sell-off. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:15 ET, confirming the downward momentum. Later in the evening, a sharp drop to 1.76e-06 was followed by a consolidation phase. A doji at 1.75e-06 near the 24-hour close suggests indecision, but without a strong reversal candle, the bearish bias remains intact.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50) on the 15-minute chart show a steepening bearish slope, confirming the downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages are diverging, with price failing to close above the 50-period MA for several days, indicating a stronger bearish trend. The 200-period MA remains above current levels, highlighting a potential medium-term bearish setup.

MACD & RSI

The MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover with the signal line in the negative territory, reinforcing the downward momentum. The RSI is approaching oversold conditions but remains above 30, which may indicate a short-term rebound could be possible. However, this has not led to a bullish reversal yet, and the RSI remains in a bearish divergence with the price action.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show a period of contraction after the mid-day sell-off, suggesting potential for a breakout or breakdown. The price closed near the lower band, indicating low volatility and bearish pressure. A sustained move above the mid-band could signal a short-term reversal, but the current position of the bands supports the continuation of the downtrend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply around 19:15 ET, coinciding with the bearish engulfing pattern, confirming the strength of the sell-off. However, volume has since declined significantly, with the last 6 hours showing minimal trading activity, indicating a potential lack of follow-through in the bearish move. Notional turnover also dropped, suggesting reduced interest in the pair.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 1.86e-06 high to the 1.74e-06 low show the current close near the 61.8% level (1.76e-06), indicating potential support ahead. A bounce from this level could lead to a test of the 38.2% retracement at 1.81e-06, but a breakdown below 1.75e-06 could target 1.73e-06 as the next major support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a simple mean reversion strategy based on the observed Bollinger Band contraction could be tested by entering a long position when the price closes above the mid-band after being near the lower band for three consecutive 15-minute candles. A stop loss could be placed below the 1.75e-06 support level, while a take profit targets the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.81e-06. Given the recent bearish divergence in RSI and the low volume in the past hours, this setup could offer a high-risk/high-reward trade, best suited for experienced traders with a clear understanding of the prevailing bearish context.