Market Overview for Peanut the Squirrel/Bitcoin (PNUTBTC) – 2025-09-22

• • •

• Price action shows a 23.7% decline in PNUTBTC from 2.05e-06 to 1.86e-06
• Momentum weakened as RSI dropped below 40, suggesting oversold conditions
• Volatility expanded during the 00:45 ET session with a 3.0% pullback
• Volume surged during the selloff, confirming bearish sentiment
• No decisive reversal patterns emerged despite multiple failed bounces

Peanut the Squirrel/Bitcoin (PNUTBTC) opened at 2.05e-06 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 1.86e-06 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 2.05e-06 and a low of 1.77e-06. Total volume reached 333,675.7, with a notional turnover of 618.23 BTC-equivalent. The 24-hour period was characterized by a bearish drift, punctuated by a sharp selloff after 12:00 AM ET.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a broad descending channel, with key resistance around 2.05e-06 and support at 1.86e-06. A potential bearish flag pattern emerged after the 06:15 ET low of 1.77e-06, confirmed by a subsequent retest at 1.84e-06. A small bullish harami at 08:15 ET failed to trigger a meaningful rebound, indicating weak buying interest. The formation of a bearish engulfing pattern at 06:15 ET was a strong bearish signal, validated by the subsequent breakdown.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed below the 50-period SMA, signaling bearish momentum. The daily chart showed a similar bearish cross with the 50-period SMA dropping below the 200-period SMA. These crossovers suggest a continuation of the downward trend for the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line fell below the signal line after 12:00 AM ET, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI dropped below 40 during the selloff, reaching a low of 30 in the early hours, indicating oversold conditions. However, the lack of a rebound from the 1.86e-06 level suggests that sellers may remain dominant.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff, with the 1.77e-06 low falling just above the lower band. Price has since traded within a narrow band, with the 1.86e-06 level acting as a temporary floor. A retest of the 1.9e-06 midline could trigger a short-term bounce but may fail to sustain bullish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 00:45 ET session with a 102,552.9 trade volume at 1.98e-06, supporting the sharp pullback. Notional turnover surged during the same period, aligning with the price decline. A divergence between volume and price emerged during the 09:00–10:00 ET rebound, as volume remained muted despite a 1.88e-06 bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 2.05e-06–1.77e-06 move saw a 61.8% retracement at 1.90e-06, which held as a key resistance. A 38.2% retracement at 1.89e-06 acted as a temporary floor during the 14:00–15:00 ET consolidation. The 23.6% retracement at 1.88e-06 is likely to be tested before the next key level at 1.85e-06.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position on the 15-minute chart after a bearish engulfing pattern forms below a key moving average, confirmed by a spike in volume and a MACD crossover. Stops could be placed above a recent swing high (e.g., 1.90e-06), with take-profit targets aligned with Fibonacci levels (e.g., 1.85e-06). This strategy would aim to capture continuation moves during extended bearish pressure, particularly if RSI remains below 50.