Market Overview for PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC): November 12, 2025

Summary
• PAXGBTC drifted lower by ~0.2% over 24 hours, closing below key intraday highs.
• Volatility expanded early, but faded as volume waned overnight.
• A bearish divergence in RSI and price raises short-term oversold concerns.

PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) opened at $0.03963 on November 11 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.04013 and a low of $0.03917 before closing at $0.03925 on November 12 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 397.61 BTC, while total notional turnover amounted to $15.63 million, reflecting moderate liquidity.

Over the past 24 hours, PAXGBTC displayed a bearish drift with a series of small-bodied bearish candles forming near $0.0396–$0.0398. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained in bearish alignment on the 15-minute chart, reinforcing downward pressure. Price tested the $0.0396 support level twice, failing to break decisively below, but the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior bullish swing at $0.03945 appears to act as a firm floor. A contraction in Bollinger Band width overnight suggests a potential period of consolidation may be emerging.

Momentum indicators showed mixed signals. The RSI approached oversold territory in the early hours but failed to generate a convincing bullish reversal, casting doubt on near-term bottoming. MACD remained bearish, with the histogram shrinking slightly in the last four hours, suggesting a potential exhaustion in the downward move. However, no strong bullish divergence formed, leaving the path of least resistance unchanged for now.

Volume spiked twice during the 24-hour window—first at $0.03999 on November 11 and again at $0.03928 early on November 12—each coinciding with key support or resistance levels. However, the subsequent price failures to hold above these levels raise concerns about weak follow-through. Turnover and price action appear to be diverging slightly, with higher turnover failing to lift the asset above prior resistance.

The market may find a short-term floor in the $0.03925–$0.03945 range, where Fibonacci and Bollinger Band support converge. A break below $0.0392 could trigger further selling. Investors should monitor volume and RSI for signs of a reversal or continued bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described backtesting strategy sought to profit from high-probability setups combining a bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern and a confirmed support-level entry. Positions were held for exactly one trading day, with no additional risk controls. Over the period from January 1, 2022, to November 11, 2025, the strategy returned -0.15% gross, with an average loss of -0.08% per trade. The negative Sharpe ratio (-0.31) and weak annualized return (-0.03%) suggest limited effectiveness in this market. This outcome may reflect the low volatility and range-bound nature of PAXGBTC, which may not provide sufficient price swings for such a pattern-based strategy to thrive. Alternative approaches—such as incorporating multiple timeframes or adding short-term volatility filters—might improve robustness.