Market Overview for PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC)

Summary
• PAXGBTC formed a bearish reversal pattern near 0.0507, with volume declining after a sharp 1.5% intraday high.
• RSI moved into oversold territory below 30, suggesting potential near-term support around 0.0496–0.0498.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened during a 0.0502–0.0510 range, hinting at a potential breakout.
• Price rejected a 61.8% Fibonacci level from the 0.0502–0.0510 swing, now consolidating below that threshold.
• Turnover spiked during the 19:30–20:30 ET window, coinciding with a failed rally to 0.0509.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-12-17, PAXGBTC opened at 0.05025 and traded as high as 0.0510 before closing at 0.04971 by 12:00 ET on 2025-12-18. The pair traded within a 1.5% range, hitting a low of 0.04884. Total traded volume reached 299.0082, with an estimated turnover of $14.82 million (based on average price of ~$0.0497).

Structure & Formations

Price action from 19:30 to 20:30 ET showed a sharp rally to 0.05094 followed by a sharp reversal to 0.05047, forming a potential bearish engulfing pattern. A cluster of rejection candles emerged between 0.0506 and 0.0508, suggesting immediate resistance. A possible support zone is forming at 0.0496–0.0498, where price has found a floor multiple times in the last 12 hours.

Moving Averages

On the 5-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, reinforcing a bearish bias.

On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits just above the 200-period MA, indicating a neutral-to-bullish trend over a longer horizon, though this is not currently reflected in the short-term action.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish after 20:00 ET, with the histogram declining as price momentum slowed. RSI reached an oversold condition below 30, suggesting a potential bounce in the near term. However, the lack of volume on the rebound suggests caution.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened from a narrow contraction earlier in the day. Price currently sits near the lower band, which has acted as a floor multiple times since 00:00 ET. A break above the middle band may indicate resumption of the prior rally.

Volume & Turnover

The 19:30–20:30 ET rally was supported by a spike in volume and turnover, but the subsequent pullback was marked by declining volume, suggesting weak follow-through buying. Divergence between volume and price suggests that the recent rally may lack conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 0.0502–0.0510 swing was rejected at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.0507), which now appears to be a key pivot. A break below 0.0496 would target the next Fibonacci level at 0.0490. On the daily chart, 0.0501 and 0.0513 appear as potential support and resistance levels, respectively.

Looking ahead, PAXGBTC appears to be testing key Fibonacci and support levels in the 0.0496–0.0502 range. A break below 0.0495 could trigger further downside, though the RSI suggests some short-term bounce potential. Investors should remain cautious ahead of increased volatility, particularly if volume fails to confirm any directional move.