Market Overview for PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC)

• PAXGBTC declined sharply from 0.03613 to 0.0348 in 24 hours, with bearish momentum intensifying after 22:15 ET.
• Price tested and broke the 0.03545 support, with volume surging during the drop to 0.03528.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent expansion, suggesting heightened volatility.
• RSI fell below 30 in the last 4 hours, indicating potential oversold conditions.
• Turnover spiked during the 22:15–02:00 ET window, aligning with key support breaks and retracements.

The 24-hour period from 12:00 ET on 2025-10-26 to 12:00 ET on 2025-10-27 saw PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) open at 0.03613 BTC, reach a high of 0.03625 BTC, and close at 0.0348 BTC after hitting a low of 0.03456 BTC. Total volume across the period was 490.29 BTC, with a total turnover of $17.63 million (at a BTC price of $65,000). The pair experienced sharp downward movement from 22:15 ET onwards, breaking key support levels and forming bearish candlesticks.

In the 15-minute chart, PAXGBTC tested the 0.03545 support level in the early hours and broke below it, triggering a pullback to 0.0348. A bearish engulfing pattern formed during this decline, and a series of doji and hanging man patterns appeared between 05:00 and 09:00 ET, suggesting exhaustion in the bearish momentum. However, the price remained below key support levels, indicating ongoing bearish pressure. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed to the downside, with the 50-period now sitting above the 20-period, confirming the short-term bearish bias.

On the MACD chart, the line crossed below the signal line around 01:00 ET, forming a bearish crossover that persisted through the end of the 24-hour period. The histogram showed increasing bearish momentum between 22:00 and 03:00 ET, with a slight contraction after 09:00 ET. RSI dropped below 30 by 07:00 ET, indicating oversold conditions, though a rebound to 32 suggests buyers may be entering at these levels. Bollinger Bands expanded during the sharp drop, and the price closed near the lower band, indicating potential for a short-term bounce or continuation of the downtrend.

Bollinger Band expansion and the oversold RSI suggest that volatility is high and a pullback may be imminent. However, the breakdown below the 0.03545 support and the bearish candlestick formations suggest that the 0.03456 level is now the immediate concern. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.03456–0.03625 range is at 0.03528, which appears to have offered some resistance during the bounce. A retest of the 0.0348–0.0352 range could offer short-term trading opportunities, but the broader trend remains bearish. Investors should closely monitor for a break of 0.03456, as that would likely trigger another wave of downside momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy would involve identifying each occurrence where PAXGBTC’s closing price touched or crossed the 0.03456 BTC support level since 2022-01-01. By analyzing the post-touch behavior, we can evaluate the average returns, success ratios, and optimal holding periods for traders entering positions at or near this level. Given the current bearish momentum and the recent break below 0.03545, this strategy could help assess whether the 0.03456 level historically provides strong directional signals or acts as a catalyst for further downside. To proceed, confirmation of a precise data source or ticker format is required.