Market Overview for PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC)

• PAXGBTC fell from 0.03262 to 0.03221 in 8 hours, then consolidated.
• Price recovered 0.03246 before closing at 0.03251 at 12:00 ET.
• Volatility expanded during the drop, with a low-volume recovery.
• RSI hit oversold, but failed to confirm a strong reversal.
• Volume surged during the downward leg but tailed off into consolidation.

PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) opened at 0.03238 on 2025-09-05 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.03262 and a low of 0.03221 before closing at 0.03251 at 12:00 ET the next day. Total volume traded over the 24-hour period was 82.1382, with a notional turnover of 2.6436 (calculated as sum of high × volume per candle).

The market exhibited a clear bearish impulse early in the session, followed by a modest rebound in the final hours. The recovery lacked conviction, with lower volume and mixed candlestick bodies suggesting indecision among traders. The price appears to be consolidating above key support at 0.03225, but without a decisive break above 0.03254, continuation of the downward trend remains a risk.

Structure & Formations

Price action suggests a short-term bearish bias, with 0.03246 acting as a minor support and 0.03254 as resistance. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible around 19:30–20:00 ET, followed by a long lower wick at 03:30–04:15 ET, hinting at a possible near-term bottom. A doji appeared at 21:15–21:30 ET as the price reversed from 0.03215 to 0.03238, signaling indecision.

Moving Averages

A 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed below the 50-period line in the early part of the session, confirming a short-term bearish bias. By the end of the 24-hour period, the price had re-entered above the 50-period MA, indicating a potential countertrend attempt. However, the 50-period MA remains below the 100-period and 200-period lines, suggesting a longer-term bearish tilt.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative during the early sell-off, with a bearish crossover forming below zero. While the RSI reached 30 (oversold), a bounce was not confirmed by the MACD, weakening the bullish signal. RSI remains in neutral to slightly oversold territory at 36 as of 12:00 ET.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the early sell-off, with price reaching the lower Bollinger band at 0.03221. A retest of the lower band occurred at 03:15–04:45 ET, but a reversal was not confirmed by volume or candlestick structure. The current price of 0.03251 sits near the middle band, suggesting consolidation ahead of a potential breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the downward move from 19:30–21:00 ET, with a peak of 3.4371 in a single 15-minute candle. However, volume tailed off during the recovery phase, with only 1.5027 traded in the 5.5-hour window from 05:30–11:00 ET. This divergence suggests the current rebound may be fragile.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key 38.2% retracement level at 0.03245 was tested and held, while the 61.8% level at 0.03254 failed to break. This suggests traders are cautious about taking long positions above this level. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement remains at 0.0325, which aligns with recent candlestick behavior.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve using the 20-period and 50-period moving averages as trend signals, with a stop-loss placed just below the lower Bollinger band. Traders could look to enter short positions when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA and the RSI exceeds 70 (overbought), with a target of the next Fibonacci retracement level. A long entry could be initiated on a confirmed break above 0.03254, with a stop just below 0.03245. Given the recent divergence in volume, however, any long entries should be treated with caution.