Market Overview for PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) - 2025-10-08

• PAXGBTC traded higher over 24 hours, closing near a 24-hour high with increased volume in the final 6 hours.
• Price action showed a bullish bias with a 0.3% rise, amid moderate volatility and strong volume confirmation.
• RSI and MACD showed positive momentum, but no overbought conditions yet emerged.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 05:30 ET, followed by a sharp rally.
• Bollinger Bands expanded in the final hours, reflecting rising volatility.

PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) opened at 0.03283 on 2025-10-07 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.03368, a low of 0.03267, and closed at 0.03298 as of 2025-10-08 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, the total trading volume amounted to 384.3551 units, while the notional turnover was approximately 12.873 (PAXG equivalent).

The price action was characterized by a strong bullish breakout from a consolidation phase that started on 2025-10-07 16:00 ET. A notable breakout occurred around 05:45 ET, where the candle broke above a key resistance cluster near 0.0333, forming a bullish engulfing pattern. This was followed by a rapid move to the session high of 0.03368, where the pair tested the upper Bollinger Band. The breakout was confirmed by rising volume and a divergence in RSI showing a stronger close relative to price.

On the technical front, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bullish, with the 20-period MA crossing above the 50-period MA, signaling a short-term bullish bias. The MACD histogram remained positive throughout the latter half of the day, with the MACD line staying above the signal line. RSI climbed into the 50-60 range by the end of the session, indicating strengthening momentum without overbought conditions. Bollinger Bands widened significantly after 04:00 ET, reflecting heightened volatility, while price remained in the upper half of the channel.

Fibonacci retracement levels were key during the final 6 hours. The 61.8% retracement of the earlier bearish swing (0.03368 - 0.03271) provided a strong support level near 0.03303, which was respected before the final rally. A minor 38.2% level at 0.0333 also appeared to act as a minor resistance before the breakout confirmed the move higher. Daily-level Fibonacci levels from the 12-hour range (0.03271 - 0.03368) also showed a potential target for the next 24 hours around 0.0338, assuming the current bullish trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bullish breakout pattern and the technical confirmation from moving averages and momentum indicators, a potential backtest strategy could involve a long entry at the close of the bullish engulfing candle (0.0333) with a stop-loss placed slightly below 0.0330, which acted as a key support during the session. A take-profit target could be placed at 0.0336 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level) and extended to 0.0338 (the 78.6% level) if the trend holds. This strategy would aim to capture the immediate post-breakout momentum while managing risk with a defined stop. Given the increased volatility in the final hours, trailing stops could also be considered to protect gains if the trend shows signs of continuation.