Market Overview for PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) – 2025-10-06

• PAXGBTC traded in a tight range between 0.03154 and 0.03181 with a bearish close near the session low.
• A notable 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 19:15 ET, followed by a consolidation phase.
• Volume spiked sharply at 17:00 ET, indicating increased selling pressure, but faded afterward.
• RSI remains neutral near 50, suggesting indecision, while MACD is flat with no clear momentum.
• Volatility slightly expanded as price tested lower Bollinger Band support during the late session.

Market Overview

PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) opened at 0.03171 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.03181, fell to a low of 0.03154, and closed at 0.0317 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 10.6185, and notional turnover amounted to 3.3681.

The candlestick formation over the last 24 hours appears to suggest a consolidation phase with a subtle bearish bias. Price action oscillated within a narrow range, forming several small doji and bearish spinning tops. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 19:15 ET candle, signaling potential bearish momentum, which was later partially retraced.

Structure & Formations

Key support was identified near 0.03161-0.03165, where price found a floor after an early bearish move. Resistance remained untested at 0.03180, where price stalled during a few attempts to rally. A small bearish engulfing pattern at 19:15 ET and a hanging man doji at 19:30 ET suggest potential exhaustion in the bullish trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have crossed into bearish territory, with the price now below both. The longer-term 50/100/200-day MA lines on the daily chart remain neutral but indicate a lack of strong directional bias.

MACD & RSI

RSI remains in the 45–55 range, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish tone with no signs of overbought or oversold conditions. The MACD histogram is nearly flat, with the line hovering below the signal line, suggesting weak momentum and a possible continuation of the current consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded slightly in the last 12 hours, with price touching the lower Bollinger Band during the bearish move. This suggests a possible support level in the 0.03161–0.03165 area, which appears to be acting as a key psychological floor.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly at 17:00 ET, with a large 10.1416 volume candle marking the start of a sharp decline. However, volume has since receded, indicating waning selling pressure. Notional turnover also spiked during this time but has since normalized. Price and turnover appear to be in alignment, supporting the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the recent high (0.03181) to the low (0.03154) suggest that the 61.8% retrace level is around 0.03165–0.03168. Price has tested this area twice, with mixed results, suggesting it could be a critical pivot point for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described focuses on identifying short-term bearish reversal patterns on the 15-minute chart—specifically bearish engulfing and hanging man doji—combined with volume confirmation. When these patterns appear near or below the 50-period moving average and are supported by a RSI reading under 55, the strategy suggests a short entry with a stop loss above the recent swing high. Given the current setup on PAXGBTC, the 19:15 ET bearish engulfing pattern and the subsequent price action align with this strategy. A retracement near the 61.8% Fib level could serve as a target for this short-term bearish trade, with a stop loss placed above 0.03175 to manage risk.