Market Overview for PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) on 2025-10-04

• PAXGBTC traded in a 24-hour range of 0.03135–0.03202 with a slight upward bias in the final hours.
• Momentum indicators suggest mixed sentiment, with RSI hovering near mid-range and MACD showing weak bullish divergence.
• Volatility remained relatively subdued, with Bollinger Bands narrow and price hovering near the midline.
• Volume and turnover were uneven, with spikes during late-night and mid-morning sessions.
• No clear reversal or continuation patterns emerged, but a potential consolidation phase could precede a breakout.

PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) opened at 0.03191 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.03202, touched a low of 0.03135, and closed at 0.03202 as of 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading session saw a total volume of 337.09 BTC and a notional turnover of approximately $10.72 (assuming $31,800 BTC price). Price action revealed a rangebound profile early on, before a late push to new highs in the final hours.

The 15-minute OHLC data shows no strong bearish reversal patterns, though a few doji and narrow-range candles suggest indecision. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained in close proximity, indicating a sideways trend. A larger breakout is likely to occur once price clears the upper Bollinger Band or falls below the lower band. The 50-period MA on the daily chart is also flattening, indicating a potential consolidation phase.

MACD appears in positive territory with a flattening histogram, signaling a potential shift in momentum. RSI is currently in the 50–55 range, suggesting a neutral posture without overbought or oversold conditions. Bollinger Band width has contracted slightly during midday hours, which may lead to a break in trend direction or continuation. Volume has been uneven, with the largest spikes occurring during overnight and early morning trading hours, which may suggest a potential accumulation phase.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 0.03135 low to the 0.03202 high indicate key levels at 0.03164 (38.2%), 0.03186 (50%), and 0.03200 (61.8%). The current price action is testing the 61.8% level, which may serve as a pivot for either a continuation or reversal. Given the current structure and lack of clear momentum, the market appears to be entering a phase of consolidation, with a likely next move depending on volume and order flow at these key levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when price crosses above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (0.03200) on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below the 50% level (0.03186), and a target set at 0.03220. Alternatively, a short entry may be considered if price fails to hold above 0.03186, with a stop placed above 0.03193. The strategy could be backtested using volume spikes as filters to avoid false breakouts. This approach aligns with the observed price behavior near Fibonacci levels and the current RSI and MACD signals.