Market Overview for PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) on 2025-10-03

• PAXGBTC formed a bullish divergence on RSI during the overnight hours, while volume picked up near key resistance.
• Price remained compressed between 0.03193 and 0.03221, with a 0.03213 pivot showing strong internal consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed into the early hours before a breakout attempt in the morning session.
• A bearish breakdown in volume occurred in the midday ET hours, despite a 0.17% price rebound.

24-Hour Price and Volume Summary

PAXGBTC opened at 0.03214 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.03228 and a low of 0.03178 before closing at 0.0318 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the period was 106.84 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately $3,437.54 at an average rate of $32.13 per BTC equivalent.

Structure & Formations

PAXGBTC remained tightly range-bound for much of the 24-hour period, fluctuating within a narrow band of 0.03193–0.03221. Key support was identified at 0.03193 and 0.0318, with the latter being tested and confirmed during the last 15-minute interval. Resistance levels at 0.03215 and 0.03223 were approached but failed to hold. A notable bullish engulfing pattern formed near 0.03209 in the late hours of 2025-10-02, followed by a bearish harami pattern at 0.03217 the next morning—suggesting indecision.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were closely aligned near 0.03214, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish bias. However, as the price approached 0.03223, the 50-period MA began to flatten, potentially signaling a near-term top. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was at 0.03215, with the 100-period at 0.03203 and the 200-period at 0.03195. The price currently resides just below the 50-period MA, suggesting a possible pullback to key support near 0.03193 is in play.

MACD & RSI

The MACD indicator showed a bearish crossover in the late hours of 2025-10-02, with the histogram contracting slightly before flipping positive early on 2025-10-03. However, RSI diverged during the overnight recovery, rising to 58 without a corresponding close above the 50-period MA, hinting at a potential false bounce. RSI remains in neutral territory at ~55, with no clear overbought or oversold conditions. A move below 50 could indicate further weakness, particularly if volume fails to confirm.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened significantly during the overnight hours, compressing between 0.03204 and 0.03217. This contraction signaled a period of low volatility before a breakout attempt toward the upper band in the morning. The price eventually closed near the lower band at 0.0318, indicating a bearish bias. The narrowing and subsequent expansion of the bands suggest a potential reversal setup should the price retest the 0.03213–0.03215 zone.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased notably near key resistance levels in the late evening and again during a midday ET sell-off, but failed to confirm any sustained momentum. The highest 15-minute volume was recorded at 0.03201 (14.64 BTC), coinciding with a breakdown move toward 0.03193. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, though the price failed to hold above the 0.03204 level. Divergence between price and volume during the morning rebound suggests potential bearish follow-through.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 24-hour swing from 0.03228 to 0.03178, key levels at 38.2% (0.03208), 50% (0.03203), and 61.8% (0.03198) were all tested. The 38.2% level held briefly before the price continued lower. The 50% and 61.8% levels correspond closely to the current consolidation range and the final 15-minute close at 0.0318. A retest of the 38.2% level could confirm a short-term bottom.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering a long position when PAXGBTC closes above the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed at the previous swing low and a target at the next Fibonacci resistance. Over the last 24 hours, a similar setup was observed near 0.03213, where a bullish engulfing pattern formed and the 20-period MA was crossed. However, the lack of follow-through volume and divergence in RSI suggest that this setup may not yield favorable results in the near term. The test would require careful monitoring of volume and confirmation of a breakout above 0.03223 to avoid false signals.