Market Overview: PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) – 2025-09-25

• PAXGBTC traded with a bearish bias early before forming a bullish rebound in the final 12 hours.
• Key support held at 0.03280–0.03285, with a breakout above 0.03316 marking a new 24-hour high.
• Volatility expanded through the trading day, with volume peaking in the early hours.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions in the final 4 hours, suggesting potential near-term resistance.
• Turnover increased steadily, aligning with price action and confirming strength in the upward move.

PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) opened at 0.03304 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.03379 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. The pair reached a high of 0.03379 and a low of 0.03280 over the 24-hour period. Total volume was 120.2118, and notional turnover was 4.0585 (calculated as sum of high × volume).

The price structure showed a key support at 0.03280–0.03285 and resistance at 0.03316–0.03320. A bullish breakout above 0.03316 occurred during the overnight session, with a strong continuation forming a 15-minute hammer pattern at 0.03315–0.03316. The trend reversed briefly at 0.03382, where a bearish spinning top formed, signaling potential exhaustion.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were closely aligned, with price above both during the final 6 hours. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the upward thrust, suggesting rising volatility. Price spent most of the session within the upper band, a sign of bullish pressure. The 61.8% Fibonacci level of the key swing (0.03280–0.03316) at 0.03307 offered temporary resistance, but price continued higher from there.

MACD crossed above zero mid-morning, confirming momentum, while the RSI reached overbought territory (70–80) in the final 4 hours. Volume and turnover spiked in the early hours, aligning with the price break above 0.03316, and again in the final 3 hours, confirming the bullish momentum.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were closely aligned, with price above both during the final 6 hours. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the upward thrust, suggesting rising volatility. Price spent most of the session within the upper band, a sign of bullish pressure. The 61.8% Fibonacci level of the key swing (0.03280–0.03316) at 0.03307 offered temporary resistance, but price continued higher from there.

Backtest Hypothesis: Based on the observed 15-minute bullish breakout at 0.03316 and the strong MACD and RSI confirmation, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long at the close of the bullish hammer pattern, with a stop-loss placed below the 0.03307 Fibonacci level and a take-profit at the 0.0335–0.0336 region. This approach would leverage the confluence of key technical indicators, trend alignment, and volume confirmation seen in the final 4–6 hours of the session.