Market Overview for PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) - 2025-09-22

• PAXGBTC rose from 0.03195 to 0.03326 before consolidating, signaling potential bullish momentum in the morning.
• RSI and MACD showed oversold-to-neutral conditions, with bullish divergence in price and indicators.
• Key support was tested around 0.03295, while resistance capped at 0.03325 saw failed attempts to hold.
• High volume spikes in the early morning (06:15–07:30 ET) confirmed the upward move, but diverged in the late afternoon.
• Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the rally, then contracted during the consolidation phase, indicating possible range-bound behavior ahead.

The PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) pair opened at 0.03195 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.03326, fell to a low of 0.03191, and closed at 0.03308 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 267.9396, while total notional turnover amounted to 8.4667. The price demonstrated a strong early rally, followed by consolidation and mild bearish pressure in the late afternoon.

Structure & Formations

Price moved in a clear bullish fashion in the early hours, forming a bullish engulfing pattern from 00:30–00:45 ET. A doji at 04:30 ET marked a key moment of indecision. A bearish harami emerged at 14:00–14:15 ET, suggesting bearish pressure after the morning rally. Key support was found near 0.03295, and resistance was tested at 0.03325 but failed to hold, suggesting a potential break and retest scenario.

Moving Averages

The 20-period 15-minute MA crossed above the 50-period MA during the early morning, confirming the bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, indicating a longer-term bullish trend. However, the 100-period MA has been acting as a resistance, limiting the upward potential.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive early in the morning and remained above the signal line, indicating strong bullish momentum during the initial phase. RSI moved from oversold territory (near 25) to a neutral range (around 52), showing the move was confirmed by both trend and momentum indicators. A bullish divergence formed in the late morning as price dipped slightly while RSI held higher levels, suggesting further support could be strong.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the morning rally, with the upper band reaching 0.03326, while the lower band hovered around 0.03191. In the late afternoon, the bands contracted, indicating lower volatility and potential consolidation. Price remained within the bands throughout the day, avoiding extreme overbought or oversold conditions.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly in the early morning (06:15–07:30 ET), particularly during the 06:15–06:30 ET period, with 47.8091 volume and notional turnover of 1.6349, confirming the strong upward move. However, in the afternoon, volume deteriorated, with a bearish divergence between price and volume as price dipped but volume remained low, suggesting a lack of conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

On a 15-minute basis, the 0.03326 high and 0.03191 low defined a swing where key retracement levels of 38.2% (0.03260) and 61.8% (0.03236) were tested but rejected. Price is now consolidating near the 61.8% level, indicating possible short-term consolidation or a potential retest of key resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

The observed bullish engulfing pattern and bullish divergence in RSI provide a solid technical basis for a backtesting strategy that would enter long on confirmation of a close above 0.0331, with a stop-loss below 0.03295 and a target at 0.03335. The high morning volume also supports the strategy's confidence. A backtest could evaluate this pattern over similar 24-hour windows, checking the success rate of entries based on these signals.