Market Overview for PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) – 2025-09-18

• PAXGBTC opened at 0.03193 and traded in a tight range between 0.0313 and 0.03201, closing at 0.03113.
• Price showed a bearish bias through a long bearish candle and key support breakdown at 0.03143.
• Volatility expanded in late hours, with volume spiking over 25,000 units and turnover aligning with price decline.
• RSI entered oversold territory, and the MACD showed bearish divergence from a previous peak.
• Fibonacci levels at 0.03119 and 0.03143 appear critical for short-term direction.

The PAX Gold/Bitcoin pair (PAXGBTC) opened at 0.03193 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 0.03201 and as low as 0.031109 before closing at 0.03113 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET. Total trading volume over the 24-hour period was 166.19 units, with notional turnover reaching $5.31 million.

Price action formed a bearish bias, marked by a long lower wick and breakdown below key support at 0.03143. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 0.03152–0.03139 on the 15-minute chart, signaling increased bear pressure. The price found a floor in the final hours at 0.031109, where a doji pattern suggested indecision and possible short-term consolidation.

A 20-period and 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover late in the session, confirming the downtrend. The RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30 and failed to rebound despite moderate volume, pointing to a potential continuation of the decline. Bollinger Bands widened late in the session, indicating increasing volatility. Price closed near the lower band at 0.031109, highlighting a bearish signal.

Fibonacci retracement levels on recent swings show the 61.8% level at 0.03119 and 38.2% at 0.03143 as immediate key levels. A break below 0.031109 could target 0.03101 as the next Fibonacci support. The MACD histogram showed a bearish divergence, and volume increased in line with price decline, supporting the bearish case.

Backtest Hypothesis:
A potential backtesting strategy for PAXGBTC could involve a short position triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern followed by a bearish crossover of the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart. A stop-loss could be placed just above the recent swing high at 0.03196. A target for the trade would be the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.03119, with a possible extension toward the 0.03101 level. This strategy would be most effective in a high-volume environment and when the RSI confirms oversold conditions.