Market Overview for PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) – 2025-09-10

• PAXGBTC dipped 0.56% over the last 24 hours, closing near a key support level.
• Price showed bearish momentum with RSI entering oversold territory near 28.
• Volatility expanded after midday ET, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 20:45 ET, signaling increased selling pressure.
• Turnover surged during the late-night drop, aligning with price weakness.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-09, PAXGBTC opened at 0.03289 and traded in a range before breaking down sharply overnight. The pair reached a 24-hour high of 0.033 and a low of 0.03194, closing at 0.03255 on 2025-09-10. Total 24-hour volume was 213.87 BTC, and notional turnover totaled 6.78 BTC at closing prices.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish trend, breaking below key support at 0.0326 and testing 0.03237. A bearish engulfing candle at 19:45 ET and a long bearish shadow at 08:15 ET signaled increasing bearish sentiment. A potential support level may be forming near 0.0322–0.0323, while resistance is likely to retest at 0.0326–0.0327. A doji at 03:30 ET indicated indecision, suggesting a possible consolidation phase ahead.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in bearish alignment, with the 50 MA below the 20 MA and price trading below both. On a broader scale, daily moving averages (50/100/200) have been trending lower, indicating a sustained bearish bias. The short-term crossover and continued bearish trend confirm a weak near-term outlook.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the afternoon, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dropped into oversold territory at 28, raising the possibility of a short-term bounce. However, RSI divergence suggests that bullish follow-through may be limited, and a retest of lower support levels appears more likely.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly overnight, with Bollinger Bands widening from a tight 0.033–0.0329 range to 0.03217–0.03266. Price has closed near the lower band, which reinforces the bearish bias. A contraction may follow if the price consolidates near 0.0322–0.0324.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the overnight decline, particularly between 03:45 ET and 06:45 ET, where turnover surged due to large-sized orders. Price and volume action aligned during this period, confirming the bearish move. A divergence appears at 08:15 ET, where volume was lower despite a sharp price drop, which may signal weakening momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the overnight drop from 0.0327 to 0.03194, the 61.8% retracement level is at ~0.0323, which appears to be a key area of support. A retest of the 38.2% retracement (~0.0325) is likely before the next bearish move.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish setup, a backtest strategy could focus on shorting on a break below 0.0323 with a stop just above 0.0325. A target at 0.0320 aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci level and a potential consolidation area. This approach would aim to capitalize on the RSI oversold reading while avoiding false breakouts by waiting for a close below the key support.