Market Overview: Pax Dollar/Tether (USDPUSDT) 24-Hour Summary (2025-10-11)

• Price remains tightly range-bound between 0.9985 and 1.0003.
• A sharp selloff occurred late night, breaking key support from earlier consolidation.
• Volume spiked during the 22:15–22:30 ET window, coinciding with the 0.9991 close.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish divergence during the breakdown, confirming downward momentum.
• Bollinger Bands tightened before the selloff, signaling potential for a directional move.

Pax Dollar/Tether (USDPUSDT) opened at 0.9996 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.9989 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 1.0003 and a low of 0.9978, with total traded volume of 211,490.0 units and notional turnover amounting to 208,924.7 USD equivalents.

Structure & Formations

Price displayed a clear consolidation phase between 0.9996 and 1.0001 before a sharp breakdown occurred in the early hours of 2025-10-11. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the 1.0001 level, followed by a series of lower closes and tighter trading ranges. Key support levels appear to be forming at 0.9989, 0.9986, and 0.9982, while resistance is now likely at 0.9991 and 0.9996. A potential triple bottom is forming at 0.9989, which could signal a reversal or consolidation phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages are closely aligned near 0.9996–0.9998. The price has closed below both for the majority of the last 48 hours, indicating a bearish bias. Daily moving averages (50, 100, and 200-period) are clustered between 0.9995 and 1.0002, suggesting the pair is in a neutral-to-bearish range, with no clear breakout in sight.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover and remained in negative territory throughout the 24-hour window, with a bearish divergence forming in the early morning session. RSI dropped from overbought levels near 65 to oversold territory below 30, confirming the downward pressure. However, RSI is bouncing off the 30 level at 0.9989, which may indicate short-term stabilization is in play.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened significantly around the 1.0001–0.9996 range in the lead-up to the breakdown, signaling a high-probability move. Price then dropped outside the lower band, reaching as low as 0.9978, indicating increased volatility and a potential short-term bottoming process. The current price is hovering near the lower band again, suggesting a possible rebound is being attempted.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 22:15–22:30 ET window, coinciding with the breakdown from 1.0001 to 0.9991. Turnover spiked during the same window, indicating strong conviction in the move lower. However, volume has remained subdued since the 0.9989 level, suggesting selling pressure is waning. A divergence between volume and price suggests the current downtrend may stall unless a new spike in volume confirms a breakdown below 0.9982.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.9978 to 1.0003, key levels are forming at 0.9989 (38.2%), 0.9986 (50%), and 0.9982 (61.8%). The 0.9989 level appears to be acting as a strong magnet, with multiple closes and retests. If the price breaks below 0.9982, it could test the next Fibonacci level at 0.9978, which was previously the lowest point of the 24-hour period.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on identifying bearish engulfing patterns followed by a volume spike and RSI divergence. This combination was observed during the 22:15–22:30 ET window, where the breakdown from 1.0001 to 0.9991 was confirmed by increased volume and a bearish divergence on the RSI. A backtest could explore entering a short position upon confirmation of this pattern and exiting at the nearest Fibonacci level. The key risk, however, is a potential retest of the 0.9991 level, which could invalidate the short bias and trigger a reversal.