Summary
• Price remained range-bound near 1.0001–1.0004, with minimal directional bias observed.
• A large-volume bullish engulfing pattern formed after 00:30 ET, followed by consolidation.
• Volatility remained compressed, with Bollinger Bands narrowing ahead of the break.
• Turnover surged at 05:30 ET amid a sharp retracement to 0.9999, raising bearish momentum concerns.
• RSI remained in neutral territory, lacking clear overbought or oversold signals.
At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-12-24, Pax Dollar/Tether (USDPUSDT) opened at 1.0002, reached a high of 1.0006, and a low of 0.9999, before closing at 0.9999. Total 24-hour volume was 21,472.0, with notional turnover at approximately 22,495. The pair traded within a narrow range, with price action oscillating around key psychological levels.
Structure & Moving Averages
Price remained pinned near 1.0001–1.0004 throughout most of the session.
A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 00:30 ET as price surged from 1.0001 to 1.0006 on high volume. Short-term 5-minute moving averages (20/50) showed a brief bullish crossover, but failed to confirm sustained momentum. Daily 50/200 SMA lines suggest no strong directional bias, as price remains aligned with the 200SMA.
MACD & RSI
MACD showed mixed signals, with a brief positive divergence at 00:30 ET before reverting to neutral. RSI remained between 40–50 for most of the session, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. However, a sharp drop at 05:30 ET sent RSI below 40, suggesting short-term bearish pressure.
Bollinger Bands and Volatility
Volatility remained low, with price action largely clustered near the mid-band. A notable contraction occurred between 00:00 and 04:15 ET, before a temporary expansion at 04:15–05:30 as price broke down to 0.9999. This suggests a potential shift in short-term volatility.
Volume & Turnover
Volume spiked significantly at 00:30 ET (6,063.0) and again at 05:30 ET (18,693.0), with the latter coinciding with a sharp downward move. Notional turnover followed suit, confirming the bearish price action. However, low-volume periods in the early hours suggest limited conviction on either side.
Fibonacci Retracements
On the 5-minute chart, the 05:30 ET low at 0.9999 hit the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the 00:30 ET high (1.0006). This suggests a potential support area, though confirmation will depend on how price reacts to the level in the next 24 hours.
Looking ahead, price may test the 0.9999 support area for further confirmation. A break below this could invite a retest of the 0.9997–0.9995 level. Investors should remain cautious about potential short-term volatility and divergence between volume and price.
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