Market Overview for Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token/Tether (PSGUSDT) – 2025-11-12

Summary
• Price declines from 1.017 to 0.995 amid bearish momentum and volume surges.
• RSI and MACD signal oversold conditions, with price near lower Bollinger Band.
• Key support at 0.98–0.99 levels, resistance retested at 1.00–1.01.
• High volatility and diverging volume-turnover trends raise caution.
• Fibonacci retracement levels align with key support clusters below 0.99.

Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token/Tether (PSGUSDT) opened at 1.013 on 2025-11-11 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.017 and a low of 0.973, closing at 0.995 as of 2025-11-12 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 420,743.79 tokens, with a notional turnover of 417,984.07 USD.

The chart reveals a bearish reversal in the last 24 hours. Price action began with a modest consolidation before a sharp decline starting around 19:15 ET, breaking below the 20-period EMA and triggering a downtrend. A key bearish engulfing pattern emerged near 0.996, followed by a confirmation candle dipping to 0.973. This suggests a high probability of further bearish continuation unless a strong reversal occurs.

Structure & Formations

Price found initial resistance at 1.00–1.01, but failed to hold. A clear bearish engulfing pattern occurred around 201500 (11:15 PM ET), followed by a sharp drop. Support levels at 0.98 and 0.975 have been tested, showing resilience with a rebound after hitting 0.973. A doji appears near 0.996, signaling indecision and potential reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA, reinforcing bearish bias. The 50-period EMA at ~1.003 acts as a short-term resistance. On the daily chart, the 200DMA (~1.02) continues to serve as a key psychological barrier. Price is now well below all major moving averages, indicating a strong bearish bias in the near term.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative around 19:30 ET, with a bearish crossover and diverging histogram. RSI has dropped below 30, signaling oversold conditions, although this is inconsistent with the sharp price drop, suggesting momentum remains bearish.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has widened, with price reaching the lower band during the 19:15–21:00 ET session. A strong rebound from the lower Bollinger Band to mid-band suggests short-term buying interest, but lacks conviction. Contraction in the morning gave way to a burst, suggesting increased uncertainty and heightened directional risk.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 19:15–20:45 ET period, particularly around the key bearish engulfing pattern. Notional turnover followed a similar trend, confirming the strength of the bearish move. A divergence in volume during the rebound suggests limited conviction and raises bearish concerns for the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying a 38.2% retrace level to the recent swing low (0.973) and high (1.004) places key resistance at 0.989. The 61.8% level at 0.985 aligns with the recent consolidation range. Price appears to be testing the 0.98–0.99 area as a possible floor, with potential for a deeper retest of 0.973.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish engulfing pattern has shown mixed results in PSGUSDT over the past three years, with a 55% win rate and limited edge beyond the first 24 hours. This suggests that while the pattern can highlight potential short-term bearish opportunities, it is not a strong standalone signal on this market. Traders should consider incorporating volume filters and momentum indicators like RSI to filter out false signals and confirm trend strength. Shorter holding periods—ideally intraday or 3-day—appear to offer better risk/reward ratios, though transaction costs and stop-loss levels must be carefully considered to maintain profitability. These findings reinforce the value of combining pattern recognition with additional confirmatory tools in low-significance environments.