Market Overview for PancakeSwap/Tether (CAKEUSDT) on 2025-10-29

• Price opened at $2.679 and traded between $2.514 and $2.705, closing near $2.52.
• Volume surged over 268,000 during the downward leg, suggesting strong bearish conviction.
• A large bearish candle formed post-19:30 ET, signaling potential exhaustion of bullish momentum.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish divergence as prices dropped through 2.60 support.
• Volatility expanded during the session, with price testing and breaking key Fibonacci levels.

PancakeSwap/Tether (CAKEUSDT) opened at $2.679 on 2025-10-29 (12:00 ET - 1) and closed at $2.520 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was $2.705 (high) to $2.514 (low), with total volume of 4,318,753.85 and turnover of $11,556,267.04. The price trended lower, forming a bearish engulfing pattern in the latter part of the session.

The price action exhibited key support and resistance levels, with a breakdown below 2.60 triggering a sharp bearish response. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged at the 19:30 candle, signaling a reversal of short-term bullish momentum. Additionally, a long lower shadow at the 21:00 candle suggested a failed attempt to rally, reinforcing bearish bias. The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart moved lower, confirming the downtrend.

The RSI fell into oversold territory below 30 for a period, indicating potential short-term overreaction, though this did not prevent continued selling. MACD showed a bearish crossover with the signal line and remained in negative territory, supporting the expectation of further downward momentum. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion, with the price consistently trading near or below the lower band, reflecting high volatility and bearish pressure.

Fibonacci retracement levels were critical during the decline. The 61.8% level at approximately $2.614 held briefly before the price broke through. The 50% retracement at $2.698 acted as resistance earlier in the session, failing to prevent a breakdown. A 38.2% retracement at $2.664 also failed to hold, reinforcing the bearish narrative. Volume and turnover confirmed the bearish trend, with spikes in both metrics aligning with key price drops.

Volume analysis showed consistent increases during the downtrend, particularly from 19:30 ET onward, indicating strong bearish participation. Turnover spiked during the 19:30–21:00 ET period, with the largest single candle showing a turnover of $1,437,996.50. The correlation between volume and price confirmed the strength of the bearish move, with no clear signs of a reversal or exhaustion in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy in focus seeks to identify bearish engulfing patterns in the 15-minute chart as high-probability short-term signals. Given the strong bearish engulfing pattern observed at 19:30 ET and the subsequent breakdown below key support levels, the strategy would have entered a short position at that time. Using a stop-loss above the engulfing pattern's high of $2.683 and a target aligned with Fibonacci levels (e.g., 61.8% at $2.614 or the 100% extension) could have yielded a favorable risk/reward ratio. Given the current bearish momentum and confirmed pattern, this strategy aligns with the observed market behavior and could serve as a viable approach for short-term traders.