Market Overview for Osmosis/USDC (OSMOUSDC) – 24-Hour Summary as of 2025-10-11

• Price fell to a 24-hour low near $0.1036 due to a sharp selloff late in the session.
• High volatility and a large-volume candle on 2025-10-10 21:30 ET-1 indicate strong downward pressure.
• RSI hit oversold territory, suggesting a potential bounce.
• Osmosis/USDC closed below key support at $0.1150, with volume confirming bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction, indicating a period of consolidation may be approaching.

Osmosis/USDC (OSMOUSDC) opened at $0.1522 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1166 by 2025-10-11 12:00 ET, logging a high of $0.153 and a low of $0.1036. Total volume reached 1,910,844.48, with a notional turnover of approximately $257,451. The price action revealed a bearish bias throughout the period.

Structure & Formations

Price dropped below key support at $0.1150, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming on the 21:30 ET-1 candle. A long lower shadow on the 01:45 ET candle suggested some short-term rejection of lower levels, but buying interest remained weak. A doji appeared at 03:15 ET, indicating indecision, but was followed by a sharp decline. Key resistances at $0.1215 and $0.1317 were decisively breached, while $0.1150 and $0.1097 are now critical supports to watch.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are well below the current price, reinforcing the bearish trend. On a daily basis, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs are not yet visible in this data, but the recent bearish move could see OSMOUSDC closing below the 200-day SMA in the next 24–48 hours if the trend continues.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, indicating a bearish crossover that aligns with the recent price action. RSI reached levels below 30 on several occasions, especially late in the 24-hour period, confirming oversold conditions. However, a failure to rebound above 50 could signal further downward momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands saw a period of expansion during the selloff, with price reaching the lower band at $0.1036. A contraction is forming in the final hours, suggesting a potential pause in the downtrend. Price has spent more time near the lower band, indicating a bearish bias in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically at 21:30 ET-1 (185,323.17 units), coinciding with the price breakdown to $0.1481. This volume confirmed the bearish move and was followed by continued selling pressure. Notional turnover also surged in this candle and again at 12:00 ET, indicating strong participation from larger market players.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.153 to $0.1036, the 61.8% retracement is at $0.1282 and the 38.2% at $0.1343. If price finds support near $0.1150, a rebound to the 38.2% retracement level is possible. On a daily timeframe, the 61.8% retracement from a prior high would be at $0.1368 and could become a key resistance in the short term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy outlined involves entering a short position when price breaks below a 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart and RSI falls below 40, with a stop loss placed at the recent swing high and a take profit at the next Fibonacci retracement level. Based on today’s data, this strategy would have triggered a short at $0.1481 with a stop at $0.1524 and a target at $0.1317. The strategy appears to align with today’s price action, as the breakdown and oversold RSI conditions were met. If executed, it would have yielded a gain of approximately 10.5% before the final close at $0.1166.