Market Overview for Osmosis/USDC (OSMOUSDC) – 24-Hour Candlestick Analysis

• Price declined from 0.1177 to 0.1133 before rebounding to 0.1177 in 24 hours, with a late-day breakout above prior resistance.
• OSMOUSDC posted high volatility with a 6.6% intra-day range and strong volume during the 20:30–21:45 ET selloff.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions by 11 PM ET, followed by a bullish reversal and volume confirmation.
• A key 0.1144–0.1152 support zone held twice, with price rebounding on increasing volume.
• Recent 15-minute consolidation in Bollinger Bands suggests tightening volatility and potential breakout.

Osmosis/USDC (OSMOUSDC) opened at 0.1177 on October 11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1177 on October 12 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 0.1196 and a low of 0.1036. Total volume reached 1,229,415.39 and notional turnover was approximately $138,523.88, marking a mixed day with strong bearish and bullish phases.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a textbook bearish breakdown from the 0.1175–0.1177 level during the 8:30–9:30 PM ET window, with a key support at 0.1144 holding twice. A bullish reversal followed after 11 PM ET, forming a double bottom pattern. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged after the 0.1159 level was tested, indicating potential short-term reversal. A doji near 0.1138 during early morning ET signaled indecision and potential consolidation. The price then broke above the 0.1175–0.1177 resistance once more near the 12:00 ET close, setting up for a potential bullish follow-through.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (EMA) moved downward during the bearish phase but began rising after 11:30 PM ET. The 50-period EMA crossed below the 20 EMA earlier in the session, confirming the bearish momentum, but both converged upward by the close. On the daily chart, the 50-period EMA is above the 100-period EMA, but the 200-period EMA remains below, indicating medium-term bearish sentiment. A potential crossover of the 50 and 20 EMAs may signal a short-term bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish during the selloff and hit a low before flipping bullish after 11:30 PM ET. The histogram shifted from negative to positive, aligning with the bullish reversal. RSI bottomed out at 28.9 at 11:30 PM ET, signaling oversold conditions, and then rebounded to 52 by the close, confirming the reversal. The divergence between RSI and price during the 8:00–10:30 PM ET sell-off hinted at a potential reversal, which materialized later.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked during the 20:30–21:45 ET bearish move, with prices breaking below the lower Bollinger band. After a brief consolidation period, the price moved back within the bands and closed near the center line. This suggests that volatility may be returning to normal levels, though recent expansion indicated increased uncertainty. Prices could attempt another breakout above the upper band, especially if the bullish momentum continues.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the bearish phase, particularly in the 20:30–21:45 ET window, with the largest candle (volume: 266,042.16) confirming the breakdown. After 11:30 PM ET, volume picked up again during the bullish reversal, with several candles showing strong buying interest. Notional turnover aligned with these moves, suggesting genuine price action. Divergences were minimal, but the volume confirmed both the breakdown and the reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 0.1177–0.1036 swing, the 38.2% level at 0.1106 was briefly tested, while the 61.8% at 0.1154 served as a strong support zone. The price found support twice at this level and bounced up toward the 0.1177–0.1196 range. On a daily chart, the 0.1167–0.1133 swing saw the 38.2% level at 0.1154 and the 61.8% at 0.1148, both of which were key zones during the bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed Fibonacci support and bullish reversal patterns, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a long position on a break above the 0.1175–0.1177 resistance zone, confirmed by a closing candle above 0.118. A stop-loss could be placed below the 0.1165 support level, while the take-profit would target the 0.1196–0.1205 upper range. The MACD crossover and RSI recovery into overbought territory would act as additional confirmation signals. This setup could be tested on 15-minute and 1-hour candles to determine its viability in trending and consolidating environments.