Market Overview: Osmosis/USDC (OSMOUSDC) - 24-Hour Analysis

• Osmosis/USDC declined 2.4% over the last 24 hours, forming a bearish continuation pattern after key resistance was rejected.
• Price spent most of the session below the 0.1435–0.1442 range, with volatility expanding after the 0.1400 level.
• Volume spiked sharply in the overnight session, confirming a breakout to new 24-hour lows below 0.1370.
• RSI and MACD both show bearish momentum, with price approaching 61.8% Fibonacci support at ~0.1365.
• Turnover surged during the breakdown, suggesting increased short-term conviction and potential capitulation.

Osmosis/USDC (OSMOUSDC) opened at 0.1448 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1376 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25, hitting a high of 0.1448 and a low of 0.1370 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 194,487.35, and notional turnover reached $27,716.51 (based on 15-min OHLCV data). Price displayed a clear bearish bias, breaking below prior support zones and forming a bearish continuation pattern.

Structure & Formations

Price spent much of the session consolidating between 0.1435 and 0.1442 before breaking down decisively after 12:00 ET. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed at 0.1442–0.1436 on 2025-09-24 17:15, signaling increased bearish momentum. Following this, a long lower shadow and a doji appeared at 0.1412–0.1415 on 2025-09-25 01:30, suggesting some short-term indecision but failing to halt the downtrend. A key support level was identified at 0.1390–0.1400, which was tested multiple times and finally broken at 0.1376.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed below key support at 0.1400, confirming bearish momentum. The 50EMA crossed below the 200EMA on the daily chart, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend. As of the final candle, price was trading significantly below both indicators, indicating a strong bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative at the start of the session and remained bearish through the 12:00 ET close, with the histogram expanding in magnitude as the price broke key support levels. RSI dropped below 30 at 0.1390 and continued declining, signaling oversold conditions. However, the absence of a bounce suggests that sellers remain dominant. The RSI remains in oversold territory at the close, but this has not triggered a reversal, indicating that the market may still be in the early stages of a bearish move.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly following the breakdown from 0.1400 to 0.1376, reflecting increased volatility. At the time of the breakdown, price was trading near the lower band, reinforcing bearish expectations. The expansion suggests that the move may not be over, and traders should remain cautious for further downside toward the 0.1365 level, a key Fibonacci 61.8% retracement target.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown, with the 0.1400–0.1376 move accompanied by a sharp increase in notional turnover, confirming the strength of the bearish move. The highest volume spike occurred at 0.1400–0.1396 on 2025-09-25 03:30, coinciding with the breakdown. This volume confirmation increases the likelihood of a continuation below 0.1376. Additionally, volume remained elevated during the overnight session, signaling increased participation from both retail and institutional sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 0.1370–0.1448 swing, 0.1365 (61.8%) appears to be a critical level for the next 24 hours. If this level is tested and holds, it could spark a short-term bounce toward 0.1390. A break below 0.1365 would extend the move to the 0.1350–0.1340 zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a short position at the break of the 0.1400–0.1410 range on the 15-minute chart, with a stop above the 0.1428 level and a target at 0.1365. This setup is supported by the MACD divergence and RSI oversold conditions, which historically precede short-term directional moves in volatile assets like Osmosis. The volume surge during the breakdown further strengthens the case for a continuation to the 0.1365 level.