Market Overview for Osmosis/USDC on 2025-09-24

• Osmosis/USDC declined from 0.1449 to 0.1423 over 24 hours amid weak volume.
• Key support tested at 0.1414 with a rejection observed at 0.1426.
• Volatility expanded as the price moved within diverging Bollinger Bands.
• RSI hit oversold territory near 0.1414, suggesting potential short-term bounce.
• High volume observed during the breakdown below 0.143, confirming bearish momentum.

Osmosis/USDC (OSMOUSDC) opened at 0.1449 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1423 the following day. The pair hit a high of 0.1449 and a low of 0.1414 within the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 148,484.73 and total turnover was calculated at USD 20,899.92, indicating relatively moderate liquidity.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period displayed a bearish bias, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows. Notable support was observed at 0.1414, where the price bounced twice but failed to break convincingly. A key bearish engulfing pattern appeared on the 15-minute chart at 0.1432, which confirmed the breakdown below 0.143. A doji near 0.1426 on the morning of 2025-09-24 signaled indecision and potential consolidation before the next move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a clear bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward trend. For the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA was above the 100 and 200-period lines, indicating a moderate bearish bias. The price closed below all three, suggesting continued pressure toward lower levels.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram remained negative throughout the session, with the line crossing below the signal line at key moments, confirming bearish momentum. RSI reached an oversold level near 0.1414, hinting at a potential short-term rebound, but it failed to close above 30, keeping the overall bearish tone intact. The divergence between RSI and price action during the afternoon of 2025-09-24 suggested weakening momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly, as seen by the widening of the Bollinger Bands throughout the session. The price spent much of the period near the lower band, especially after the breakdown below 0.143, which signaled high bearish conviction. A potential bounce was observed as the price briefly touched the lower band in the early morning.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown at 0.143, particularly at 2025-09-23 20:00:00 ET, confirming the move lower. However, volume dipped off during the rebound attempts in the morning of 2025-09-24, indicating weak follow-through. Turnover remained relatively consistent, with no major divergence between price and notional turnover.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.1449 to 0.1414, the 38.2% level at 0.1434 and 61.8% at 0.1427 became key zones. The price showed some rejections at these levels but failed to sustain above them, reinforcing the bearish trend. For the daily timeframe, the 61.8% retracement level from a prior major high remains a potential target if the downtrend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could leverage the bearish engulfing pattern and the breakdown below the 0.143 level as entry triggers. A stop-loss could be placed above the 0.1434 (38.2% Fibonacci) level to limit risk, while taking profit at key support levels such as 0.1414 or the next Fibonacci extension target. The RSI reaching oversold territory provides a natural exit condition for short-term bounces, but traders should remain cautious due to the weak follow-through in volume during these attempts.