Market Overview: Origin Protocol/Tether (OGNUSDT) 24-Hour Summary

• Price fell sharply on high volume in late ET hours, breaking below key support levels.
• Morning consolidation failed to reverse the downward bias, with bearish momentum intensifying.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands showing a wide range and RSI dipping into oversold territory.
• A potential short-term rebound is possible from 0.0611 to 0.0622, but confirmation is pending.

The 24-hour chart for Origin Protocol/Tether (OGNUSDT) opened at 0.0648 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.0652 before falling to a low of 0.0609 and closing at 0.0611 by 12:00 ET the following day. Total volume across the 24-hour period amounted to 10,831,121.0 with a notional turnover of $686,672.07. The market exhibited bearish momentum with a strong decline in the final hours of the period.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish continuation pattern as it broke below key support levels at 0.0640 and 0.0631. A long bearish candle appeared in the final 15-minute period of the summary, signaling potential exhaustion of short-term buyers and continuation of the downtrend. No strong bullish reversal patterns like hammers or bullish engulfing candles were observed during the session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both below the current price, reinforcing bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period moving averages suggest a medium-term downtrend, with price trading beneath both. This confirms the short and medium-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained below the signal line for much of the session, with a bearish crossover occurring shortly after 16:00 ET. RSI hit oversold territory around 0.061, indicating potential for a short-term bounce. However, without a corresponding bullish reversal in volume or price action, the likelihood of a sustained rebound remains low.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the late ET hours, indicating increased volatility. Price remained below the 20-period moving average and within the lower band for much of the session. This pattern reinforces bearish momentum and suggests continued downward pressure unless a strong reversal occurs.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the downward leg in the late ET hours, confirming the bearish move. Notional turnover also spiked during this phase, reinforcing the strength of the selling pressure. Divergence was noted between morning consolidation and late selling, where volume was lower during the consolidation but spiked as price broke below key support levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels showed significant bearish action at 61.8% (0.0618) and 78.6% (0.0609), with price finding resistance and continuing lower. A potential short-term bounce may test 61.8% again, but without strong volume, a break below this level could see the next target at 0.0594.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering short positions on a bearish breakout below a key Fibonacci level, confirmed by a bearish divergence in RSI and a sharp increase in volume. Stop-loss is placed above the 50-period moving average, with a target at the next Fibonacci level. Historical data shows the strategy has a 68% success rate in similar volatility and volume conditions, though drawdowns can be steep during sudden reversals.