Market Overview for Origin Protocol/Tether (OGNUSDT) on 2025-11-06

Summary• Price surged to 0.0405 before consolidating near 0.0397.
• High volume confirmed a breakout above key resistance.
• RSI showed overbought conditions, signaling potential pullback.
• Bollinger Bands tightened during morning hours, suggesting volatility contraction.

Origin Protocol/Tether (OGNUSDT) opened at 0.0391 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.0405 before closing at 0.0397 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 0.0385 and 0.0405 over the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 14,546,675.0 and notional turnover reached $563,345.12.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLCV data shows a strong bullish reversal pattern forming from the morning low of 0.0391, with a key breakout confirmed on the 9:30 ET candle when the price hit 0.0405. This candlestick appears to be a strong confirmation of a bullish trend continuation. Notable resistance appears to be forming around the 0.0402–0.0405 range, with support at 0.0395–0.0397. A potential bearish engulfing pattern emerged just before the 12:00 ET close, suggesting a pullback could be imminent.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA20) crossed above the 50-period (SMA50) just before 10:00 ET, confirming a bullish crossover. The daily chart shows the 50-period and 200-period moving averages converging around 0.0395, indicating the price has spent most of the day above both, which could reinforce the idea of a potential consolidation phase.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a strong positive divergence from 9:30 ET onward, confirming the price breakout above 0.0402. RSI reached overbought territory (above 70) during the 9:30–10:00 ET session, which may indicate a short-term overextension of the rally and could lead to a near-term correction. The RSI divergence appears to be the most immediate signal to watch as the market consolidates.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened significantly during the 7:30–9:30 ET period, suggesting a potential breakout or breakdown was imminent. The price surged above the upper band just before 9:30 ET, confirming the breakout. However, the bands have since expanded again, indicating an increase in volatility and reinforcing the likelihood of a near-term pullback.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 9:30–10:00 ET and 13:30–14:00 ET periods, coinciding with the breakout and consolidation phases respectively. Notional turnover also increased sharply during these intervals, which confirms strong conviction in the price move. The divergence between price and volume is minimal, suggesting the recent move is well-supported by market interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 0.0385–0.0405 move indicate a key 61.8% level at 0.0395, which the price has just tested. A potential 38.2% retracement level is at 0.0399, which may act as a near-term resistance. If the price fails to hold above 0.0397, a retracement back to the 0.0391 level becomes more likely.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong MACD divergence and RSI overbought condition observed in this 24-hour period, a one-day holding backtest strategy could be constructed using the 15-minute chart for entry signals. If applied to OGNUSDT, this strategy would simulate buying at the next open after a confirmed MACD Golden Cross and exiting one day later. This could be tested using the provided dataset to evaluate its return, win-rate, and drawdown characteristics.