Market Overview for Origin Protocol/Tether (OGNUSDT) – 2025-10-10

• OGNUSDT opened at $0.0573, peaked at $0.0599, and closed at $0.0595, with a 24-hour volume of ~13.48M.
• Price showed a late-night rally but faced early-morning profit-taking, ending near key resistance.
• Volatility expanded during the 12:00–16:00 ET window, with notable volume surges during sharp pullbacks.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions late, while Bollinger Bands highlighted a recent volatility contraction.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed during the 02:30–03:30 ET window, suggesting short-term buying interest.

Origin Protocol/Tether (OGNUSDT) opened at $0.0573 on October 9, 2025, touched a 24-hour high of $0.0599, and closed at $0.0595 by 12:00 ET on October 10. The total 24-hour trading volume amounted to approximately 13.48 million units, with a notional turnover of $809,714. The pair demonstrated a strong bullish breakout in the early hours of October 10 before consolidating into a tighter range in the afternoon.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels formed around $0.0575 and $0.0580, with resistance clustering near $0.0590–$0.0595. A notable bullish engulfing pattern developed between 02:30 and 03:30 ET, suggesting a potential short-term reversal following a sharp selloff. A doji formed at $0.0586 around 01:30 ET, signaling indecision among traders ahead of a key breakout. The price also showed a three-wave structure from $0.0580 to $0.0599, with the final wave exhibiting high volume and momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA were in a bullish crossover around $0.0585–$0.0588, reinforcing the recent upward trend. Daily moving averages, including the 50DMA and 200DMA, were also in a bullish alignment, with the 200DMA acting as a key support line around $0.0572–$0.0575. The 50DMA remained above the 200DMA, suggesting a medium-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above zero during the 04:00–05:00 ET window and remained in positive territory for most of the day, with a peak of 0.0011 during the morning session. RSI reached overbought territory (75+), peaking at 78 during the 05:15–06:15 ET window, suggesting potential near-term exhaustion. However, divergence between the RSI and price in the afternoon hinted at a potential reversal, with RSI failing to confirm higher highs as the price did.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded in the early morning session, reflecting increased volatility as the price broke through $0.0590. By midday, the bands had contracted slightly, with price hovering near the upper band at $0.0595. The narrow banding suggested a potential for a breakout, though the price remained in a consolidation phase, lacking significant follow-through above the upper bound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 03:30–04:30 ET window, coinciding with a bullish breakout above $0.0590. The notional turnover peaked at $46,747 during this period. A divergence between volume and price was observed later in the morning when the price made a higher high but volume failed to confirm the move, raising caution about the strength of the rally. Overall, the volume profile showed a healthy distribution of activity across bullish and bearish phases.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 02:30–05:30 ET swing from $0.0580 to $0.0595, key levels at 38.2% ($0.0587) and 61.8% ($0.0591) were tested multiple times. The 61.8% level held during the morning pullback and appeared to act as a temporary support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of a larger bearish leg from $0.062 to $0.0572 aligned with the current price range, suggesting potential resistance ahead at $0.0597–$0.060.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy is based on a breakout and reversal framework using Bollinger Bands and RSI. A long signal is triggered when price closes above the upper Bollinger Band and RSI confirms strength (above 55). A short signal is triggered when price closes below the lower Bollinger Band and RSI confirms weakness (below 45). Stop-loss is placed 1.5% below/above the entry, and targets are set at 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels of the breakout range. During the 2025-10-09 12:00–10-10 12:00 ET period, this framework would have generated a long signal around $0.0592 during the 05:15–06:15 ET window, with a stop at $0.0587 and a first target at $0.0595. A short signal would have been triggered during the 15:30–16:30 ET window as the price pulled back, aligning with a bearish RSI divergence. The strategy appears to perform best during periods of high volatility and well-defined ranges, as observed during the 15-minute timeframe on October 10.