Market Overview for Origin Protocol/Tether (OGNUSDT) – 2025-09-25

• Price declined from a 24-hour high of $0.0585 to a low of $0.0554, closing near the lower end of its range.
• RSI and MACD suggest bearish momentum with potential oversold conditions developing in the final hours.
• Volatility expanded sharply in the overnight session as Bollinger Bands widened and price gapped down.
• Notional turnover increased significantly during price breakdowns, confirming downward moves.
• A key 15-minute engulfing pattern emerged at $0.0576, signaling potential short-term bearish continuation.

Origin Protocol/Tether (OGNUSDT) opened at $0.0584 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0564 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.0585 and a low of $0.0554. Total volume amounted to 5,462,864.0, and notional turnover was approximately $313,015. The pair experienced a bearish trend marked by increased volatility and confirmation from volume and turnover.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows multiple key support and resistance levels forming. The strongest resistance appears around $0.0584–$0.0585, with price repeatedly failing to break above it. Below, a critical support level formed at $0.0576, where a bearish engulfing pattern emerged. Further down, support appears to be consolidating near $0.0565–$0.0566, with a potential short-term bounce expected in that range. A notable bearish flag pattern developed during the overnight session following the breakdown from the $0.0584 level, suggesting a possible continuation lower.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs have both moved downward, aligning with the bearish trend. The daily chart shows the 50-period SMA at $0.0579, the 100-period at $0.0582, and the 200-period at $0.0584, indicating short-term bearish divergence from the longer-term averages. This suggests that the pair is below key trend support levels, and traders may consider price action against the 50-period SMA as a potential entry point.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in negative territory for the entire 24-hour period, with the histogram showing a bearish divergence as price action weakened toward the close. The RSI reached an oversold level near 30 in the final hours, signaling potential short-covering or a bounce from the $0.0564–$0.0566 area. However, the momentum remains bearish overall, and a rebound should be seen as a continuation setup rather than a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly overnight, with the lower band dipping below $0.0560. Price closed near the lower band at $0.0564, suggesting the pair is in a high-volatility downtrend. The expansion indicates increased uncertainty and trader activity, with sharp price swings observed around key support and resistance levels. A contraction in the bands may signal a potential pullback, but the current setting favors continuation of the bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key breakdowns, particularly when price dropped from $0.0584 to $0.0576 and again during the final leg down to $0.0564. The largest notional turnover occurred between $0.0583 and $0.0567, indicating strong selling pressure. Notably, the volume and turnover moved in tandem with the price decline, confirming the bearish move. A divergence in volume during a potential bounce from the $0.0565–$0.0566 area would be a key signal to monitor for trend strength.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute swing from $0.0585 to $0.0554, the 38.2% retracement level is at approximately $0.0566, while the 61.8% level is near $0.0572. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sits above the 61.8% level, suggesting that a move back to $0.0572 may face strong resistance. Traders may watch these levels for possible short-term bounces or bearish continuation setups.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve identifying bearish engulfing patterns at key support levels, as seen at $0.0576, and entering short positions with stop-loss orders above the pattern's high. The strategy could be tested using the 15-minute time frame with a 50-period SMA as a dynamic support reference. Entries would be triggered when the RSI confirms oversold conditions, and exits would be based on price closing below a Fibonacci retracement level or a breakout above the 50-period SMA. This approach aligns with the bearish divergence observed in both volume and technical indicators.