Market Overview for Origin Protocol/Tether (OGNUSDT) – 2025-09-18

• Price surged from 0.0616 to 0.0693 amid strong volume and momentum before consolidating.
• A bullish breakout pattern formed near 0.0693, followed by consolidation and pullback.
• High volatility seen between 19:15–19:30 ET as price surged over 6%, followed by a retracement.
• RSI overbought readings occurred during the peak, indicating potential short-term correction.
• Volume distribution showed strong accumulation during the breakout, with decreasing turnover after 20:00 ET.

Origin Protocol/Tether (OGNUSDT) opened at 0.0616 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0669 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.0699 and a low of 0.0613 during the 24-hour period. Total volume was 98,501,500, and notional turnover amounted to approximately 6,556,850 USDT, indicating heightened activity and liquidity.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick chart shows a strong bullish breakout between 19:15–19:30 ET, with price surging from 0.0654 to 0.0693 on heavy volume. This was followed by a consolidation phase and a sharp correction to 0.0664–0.0668. Key support levels include 0.0665–0.0668, where price has shown resilience after the initial pullback. Resistance is seen at 0.0675–0.0678, where further selling pressure could emerge.

A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred at 02:15–02:30 ET as price declined from 0.0671 to 0.0666 on increasing volume. A doji appeared at 09:15–09:30 ET, signaling indecision near 0.0671 and suggesting potential reversal or consolidation ahead.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA is currently above the 50-period MA, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100-period MA but below the 200-period MA, indicating mixed signals at longer timeframes—likely a sign of ongoing accumulation or consolidation after the breakout.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed into positive territory during the breakout phase, confirming bullish momentum. However, the RSI reached overbought territory (80+) around 0.0693, suggesting a possible short-term reversal. The RSI subsequently corrected to neutral levels (~55), aligning with the consolidation phase. The MACD is now flattening, indicating waning momentum as price approaches key support levels.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the breakout as price moved outside the upper Bollinger Band. Since then, volatility has contracted, with price trading near the middle band. The upper band is currently at ~0.0678, while the lower band sits around 0.0665. Price remains within these boundaries, indicating a phase of consolidation rather than a continuation breakout.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume spike occurred at 19:15–19:30 ET, coinciding with the breakout from 0.0654 to 0.0693. Notional turnover spiked to ~530k USDT during this period, confirming the strength of the move. In contrast, turnover declined below 100k USDT after 20:00 ET, reflecting reduced conviction in the bullish trend. Price and turnover appear aligned during the breakout, but divergences in later hours suggest caution ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 0.0613–0.0693 swing, key levels include 38.2% at ~0.0653 and 61.8% at ~0.0678. Price currently hovers near the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting a potential area of resistance and consolidation. If price continues to rise beyond 0.0678, the next target would be the upper Bollinger Band at ~0.0680. Conversely, a breakdown below 0.0665 could see a retest of the 0.0653 support level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering a long position when price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band and the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA on a 15-minute chart. A stop-loss is placed at the recent swing low (e.g., 0.0665–0.0666), and a take-profit is set at 38.2% (0.0653) to 61.8% (0.0678) of the recent bullish swing. This strategy aligns with the breakout seen on 2025-09-17 and could have yielded a profit during the 0.0613–0.0693 move if triggered early enough.