Market Overview for Optimism/Tether (OPUSDT) – September 22, 2025

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• OPUSDT fell 15.9% over 24 hours amid a sharp selloff from 0.791 to 0.6939.
• Key support held near 0.7030–0.7045, with bearish momentum intensifying in early ET hours.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with volume surging over 10x at 690k+ on the downside.
• RSI reached oversold territory near 25, but divergence between price and volume suggests limited near-term bounce potential.
• A breakdown below 0.6935 risks a retest of psychological 0.68–0.69 support levels.

At 12:00 ET–1 on September 21, 2025, Optimism/Tether (OPUSDT) opened at 0.7879 and fell to a 24-hour low of 0.6939 by 16:00 ET. The pair closed at 0.6939, with total traded volume reaching 18,015,114.29 and notional turnover at $11,767,202.82. The extended selloff reflects bearish pressure across several timeframes.

Structure & Formations

Price action in the early ET session showed a breakdown of critical support levels at 0.7529, 0.7412, and 0.7326, with a sharp 15-minute candle on 06:15 ET–06:30 ET printing a high of 0.7327 and a low of 0.685. This candlestick, a deep bearish engulfing pattern, marked the start of the steep decline. The price then remained in a downtrend channel with a clear descending bias and minimal retracement, indicating strong bearish sentiment and a lack of buying interest. Key resistance levels at 0.7100–0.7115 have repeatedly failed, reinforcing the bearish narrative.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA are steeply bearish, with price well below both. The 50SMA acted as a dynamic resistance during brief retracements, preventing any meaningful bounce. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 200DMA are also bearish, with price below both. The 100DMA has also fallen below the 200DMA, suggesting a potential extension of the downtrend beyond the current cycle.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has been in negative territory for over 10 hours, with the signal line crossing below it to confirm bearish momentum. RSI has dropped to the 25–30 range, signaling an oversold condition, but divergence between price and RSI suggests that the selloff may persist. While some traders may interpret this as a short-term bounce opportunity, the volume profile shows that the oversold bounce lacks conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly in response to the sharp price drop. Price has spent the last 6 hours below the lower band, indicating heightened volatility and bearish pressure. A retest of the lower band near 0.6935–0.6940 could confirm its role as a short-term support or trigger further selling pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged dramatically during the breakdown below 0.7326, with a single 15-minute candle at 06:15 ET–06:30 ET printing a turnover of $9.75M on a volume of 9.75M units. This confirms the bearish breakout. However, subsequent candles show a decline in volume relative to price movement, suggesting waning momentum and limited short-covering or fresh selling pressure. This divergence may hint at a temporary pause in the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the 0.791 to 0.6939 move show key levels at 38.2% (0.7385) and 61.8% (0.7564) have already been rejected. The 50% retracement at 0.7425 is also under pressure, with price failing to hold above it. This suggests traders should watch for a possible retest of the 0.68–0.69 psychological support cluster as the next Fibonacci target area.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve a short bias triggered on a close below the 20SMA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a volume spike above a 50-period moving average. A stop-loss could be placed above the 50SMA or the most recent swing high, while the take-profit targets align with the 61.8% and 100% Fibonacci levels. Given the current conditions, this setup would have been triggered early in the selloff, with strong alignment to the observed price structure and momentum indicators.