Market Overview for Optimism/Tether (OPUSDT): Deepening Correction Amid High Volatility

• Optimism/Tether (OPUSDT) dropped from $0.422 to $0.358 in 24 hours, closing at $0.3602
• Price formed bearish patterns and moved below key moving averages
• Volatility spiked mid-day with a sharp decline, confirming bearish momentum
• Volume surged during the breakdown, validating price action
• RSI and MACD show strong bearish momentum with no sign of reversal

The 24-hour chart for Optimism/Tether (OPUSDT) revealed a sharp bearish move, opening at $0.4149, peaking at $0.422, and plunging to $0.3442 before closing at $0.3602. Total volume was 62.44 million contracts, with a notional turnover of approximately $24.5 million. The price action, especially after 15:00 ET, showed clear signs of exhaustion and momentum turning decisively bearish.

Price moved below the 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart and continued to trend lower on a broader timeframe. The formation of long bearish candles and a series of lower highs suggested a continuation pattern rather than a reversal. Key support levels were found at $0.360 and $0.344, with the latter briefly testing during the sharp drop.

Momentum indicators corroborated the bearish bias, with RSI hovering near oversold territory and MACD showing a strong negative divergence. Bollinger Bands reflected a sharp expansion during the breakdown phase, indicating increased volatility. Volume spiked during the decline, especially between 15:00 and 16:00 ET, confirming the strength of the bearish move.

Fibonacci retracements drawn on the 15-minute swings showed the price hitting the 61.8% level at $0.363 before a brief bounce. However, the bounce lacked conviction as prices quickly fell below the level again. Divergence between price and volume was not evident, as both fell in tandem, reinforcing the bearish narrative.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed strategy involves using RSI-14 as a signal for potential entries when the indicator drops below a defined oversold threshold. The standard threshold is 30, though this could be adjusted based on the specific behavior of OPUSDT. Assuming RSI-14 is reliable and the threshold remains at 30, the backtest would look for RSI-14 < 30 as a signal to enter long positions, with a 1-day holding period.

To proceed, confirmation is needed on the correct ticker symbol—OPUSDT is the likely pair, but exchange-specific tags or alternatives (e.g., OP) should be clarified. Additionally, determining whether to use the standard 30 oversold level or a modified value will influence the accuracy of the backtest. Once these parameters are confirmed, the RSI data can be re-fetched, ensuring a smoother implementation of the backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-03.