Market Overview for Open Campus/Tether (EDUUSDT) on 2025-11-06

Summary
• EDUUSDT traded in a bearish consolidation range, closing below the prior day's high.
• Volume surged during the late night–early morning hours, indicating increased selling pressure.
• RSI and MACD signal weakening momentum, suggesting a potential pullback or continuation of the downtrend.

The Open Campus/Tether (EDUUSDT) pair opened at 0.1639 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.1639, and closed at 0.1564 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET, marking a 24-hour low of 0.1523. Total volume over the period was 8,341,124.0, while notional turnover amounted to 1,324.67. Price appears to be consolidating in a descending pattern, with key resistance at 0.1639 and support forming near 0.1550.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward drift. The 50-period MA is currently above the 20-period MA, forming a bearish death cross signal. The 100-period MA on the daily chart also remains above the 50-period MA, suggesting sustained bearish sentiment.

MACD indicators show a bearish divergence, with the histogram shrinking during the late trading hours, indicating weakening momentum. RSI has fallen to 32.4, approaching oversold territory, but has not yet crossed below 30. This could either indicate a potential rebound or a bear trap if the price fails to recover above the 0.1590–0.1600 cluster.

Bollinger Bands have widened throughout the 24-hour period, reflecting increased volatility. The price closed near the lower band at 0.1564, which may act as a temporary support level. A rebound from this level could test the 0.1585–0.1595 range, while a breakdown below 0.1523 may accelerate the downward trend.

Volume spiked during the early hours of 2025-11-06, with a large bearish candle forming between 02:15 and 04:45 ET. Notional turnover increased alongside the price decline, suggesting a coordinated sell-off rather than random volatility. However, volume has since declined, indicating that the immediate pressure may be easing.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the recent 15-minute swing show the 38.2% level at 0.1613 and the 61.8% at 0.1575. The price closed just below the 61.8% retracement, reinforcing the bearish bias. Over the next 24 hours, a move below 0.1550 could trigger a deeper pullback or a test of the 0.1530 level.

Backtest Hypothesis
To further validate the bearish scenario, a backtest could be conducted using RSI(14) to identify oversold events—commonly when RSI falls below 30. Historical data suggests that oversold levels on this pair often precede short-term bounces or false rallies. A buy signal could be triggered on each RSI(14) < 30 event from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-06, with a stop loss placed below the 20-period MA. The goal is to assess whether a mean-reverting strategy would have been profitable in this market environment. This approach aligns with the current technical context, where RSI is nearing oversold levels without a strong reversal pattern forming.