Market Overview for Ontology/Tether (ONTUSDT): Key Levels, Divergences, and Momentum

• Ontology/Tether (ONTUSDT) broke below $0.0905 in the last 24 hours, marking a bearish breakdown.
• Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near $0.0913–$0.0905 during early ET hours.
• Volatility and volume spiked during the descent, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI approached oversold territory, but price continues to trend lower.

Ontology/Tether (ONTUSDT) opened at $0.0925 on 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0898 at the same time on 2025-10-23. The pair traded as high as $0.0929 and as low as $0.0874 during the period. Total volume amounted to approximately 19.1 million USD, and turnover reached ~94.3 million USD.

The 24-hour price action revealed a bearish breakdown through key support levels. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged during the decline from $0.0913 to $0.0905, suggesting a shift in sentiment. Price action appeared to prioritize sellers, with bearish momentum confirmed by volume and candle structure. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of ~$0.0889 became a critical area of interest during the breakdown.

Structure & Formations

Price found early resistance at $0.0913–$0.0915, forming a bearish divergence with RSI. The breakdown below $0.0905 confirmed a medium-term bearish bias. A potential support zone appears to be forming between $0.0884 and $0.0890, with a 38.2% retracement level at $0.0895. A bullish reversal may occur if price stabilizes within that range and shows signs of consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA and 50-period MA have crossed below the price, confirming the bearish trend. The 50-period MA is currently at $0.0909, while the 20-period MA is at $0.0904. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA at $0.0915 and the 200-period MA at $0.0927, indicating a long-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has been negative and expanding, signaling strengthening bearish momentum. The RSI approached 25–30, suggesting an oversold condition, but failed to generate a strong bullish bounce, indicating lingering bearish pressure. The divergence between RSI and price suggests a continuation of the downtrend unless volume shows a bullish reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Price action has remained below the lower Bollinger Band for most of the 24-hour period, indicating a period of high volatility and bearish pressure. The bands have widened significantly during the decline, signaling a breakout or breakdown in progress. The current mid-Bollinger Band sits at ~$0.0902, with the upper band at $0.0916 and lower at $0.0887. A retest of the lower band could either confirm a deeper breakdown or prompt a short-term bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown phase, particularly between $0.0907 and $0.0890, confirming the bearish move. Notional turnover also increased in tandem with price movement, indicating strong participation from sellers. No clear divergence between volume and price was observed, suggesting the bearish trend is well-supported.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels on the recent 15-minute swing (from $0.0925 to $0.0874) are at 38.2% ($0.0895), 50% ($0.08845), and 61.8% ($0.0874). Price appears to have found temporary support at the 61.8% level during the breakdown, but has since continued lower. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level sits at $0.0890, and a rebound from that level could signal a short-term bottom.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD death cross is a key technical signal often used in conjunction with price action and volume for directional bias. While we encountered data access issues for ONTUSDT, a successful backtest would require identifying historical MACD death-cross events (e.g., when the MACD line crosses below the signal line) on confirmed data. If ONTUSDT’s MACD series is accessible using an alternative format (e.g., “ONT-USDT”), a backtest could evaluate the performance of a short-trade strategy initiated on death-cross signals with a 10–15% stop-loss. The current MACD histogram appears to confirm bearish momentum, and the absence of a bullish crossover suggests the trend may persist, making a death-cross strategy potentially relevant in this environment.