Market Overview for Ontology Gas/Tether (ONGUSDT) – 2025-11-05

Summary
• ONGUSDT opened at $0.0987 and closed at $0.0978 after a volatile 24-hour session.
• Price tested key support and resistance levels, forming bearish and bullish signals.
• Volume spiked during the decline, confirming bearish momentum in the afternoon.
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions emerged later, hinting at possible rebounds.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion during the decline, indicating rising volatility.

ONGUSDT opened at $0.0987 at 12:00 ET − 1 and traded as high as $0.0994 before closing at $0.0978 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05. The pair reached an intraday low of $0.0922, showcasing significant volatility. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 11,143,765, while notional turnover reached $1,096,506, reflecting heightened market interest amid mixed price action.

1. Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a bearish engulfing pattern early in the session, followed by a deep pullback toward $0.0922. A key support level at $0.095 and resistance near $0.098 were tested multiple times. A morning doji near $0.0963 suggested indecision, while the late-day rally into $0.0994 reflected aggressive buying, though this failed to hold.

2. Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in bearish alignment by midday, confirming the downward bias. The daily chart showed the 50-period and 200-period EMA in convergence, suggesting a potential turning point could be near.

3. MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative during the afternoon sell-off, with a bearish crossover reinforcing the downward trend. RSI dipped below 30 toward the end of the session, indicating oversold conditions and a potential short-term rebound. However, RSI failed to break above 50 in the final hours, signaling continued uncertainty in the near-term direction.

4. Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sharp decline, with price reaching near the lower band at $0.0922. This indicated heightened volatility and a possible mean reversion scenario. Price closed back within the band range, suggesting some consolidation after the extreme move.

5. Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the afternoon and evening hours, particularly between 18:30 and 22:30 ET, as the price fell from $0.098 to $0.095. This confirmed the bearish momentum during the decline. Notional turnover also spiked during those periods, aligning with the price drop and indicating strong participation from larger market players.

6. Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from $0.0987 to $0.0922 showed key retracement levels at $0.0946 (38.2%) and $0.0957 (61.8%). The price held above these levels during the afternoon rebound and closed near the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential support zone could hold in the coming session.

7. Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy relies on identifying RSI < 30 as an entry signal for long positions. However, the RSI data for ONGUSDT appears to be inaccessible, as noted in the error during data retrieval. Without this signal, the hypothesis cannot be fully evaluated. To proceed, the strategy could be modified to use volume and price action signals, such as a rebound from key Fibonacci levels or a bullish reversal pattern (e.g., hammer or bullish engulfing), in place of the RSI trigger. These alternative criteria could provide a more accessible and robust backtest framework.