Market Overview for Ontology Gas/Tether (ONGUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• ONGUSDT dropped sharply from $0.144 to $0.0916 before stabilizing near $0.11–$0.12.
• Key support found at $0.113–$0.115; resistance retested at $0.12–$0.1225.
• Volume spiked during breakdown, but recent accumulation suggests short-covering.
• RSI shows oversold conditions, hinting at potential rebound, but trend remains bearish.
• Bollinger Bands widen during selloff and contract as price stabilizes, indicating range consolidation.

Ontology Gas/Tether (ONGUSDT) opened at $0.1436 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and fell to a low of $0.0669 before stabilizing near $0.11–$0.12. The pair closed at $0.1211 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. Total traded volume was 21,767,740.0 and turnover amounted to $2,570,915.56, showing heightened activity during the selloff.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period reveals a significant breakdown from $0.144 to $0.0916, followed by a consolidation phase around $0.11–$0.12. Key support levels are evident at $0.113, $0.115, and $0.118, where the price found buying interest after a sharp decline. Resistance levels include $0.12, $0.1225, and $0.125. Several bearish engulfing patterns and a long-legged doji appear during the selloff, suggesting exhaustion and potential reversal. However, the formation of small bullish harami patterns in recent 15-minute candles may indicate short-term consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a clear bearish bias, with price frequently trading below both. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs are aligned in a downtrend, reinforcing the bearish narrative. Price is attempting to form a base near the 50-period MA on the daily chart, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.

MACD & RSI

The 12,26,9 MACD line has turned positive in the last few hours after a prolonged negative divergence, indicating a shift in short-term momentum. RSI reached oversold territory in the 20–25 range before rebounding to the mid-40s. This suggests price may find support near $0.11–$0.115, although a sustained move above $0.1225 is required to confirm a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff, with price moving outside the lower Bollinger Band for several hours. As of 12:00 ET, volatility has contracted, and price is trading near the middle band. This suggests the market is in a phase of consolidation, with potential for a breakout either higher or lower. The recent narrowing of bands may precede a significant move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the breakdown phase, peaking at $0.0916 with over 900k units traded. However, volume has since declined, indicating reduced selling pressure. Notional turnover also reached a peak during the sharp decline but has since stabilized. Price and turnover appear aligned during the breakdown but diverge slightly in the consolidation phase, with volume not confirming strong follow-through.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from $0.144 to $0.0916, the 61.8% retracement level is around $0.118–$0.119, and the 78.6% retracement is near $0.127. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement is at $0.134, while the 61.8% level is near $0.115. Price currently appears to be consolidating near the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting a potential short-term pivot.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy leverages a breakout of the 15-minute Bollinger Band lower extreme as a sell trigger, combined with a long-only position when price retests the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level without breaking it. Given the recent selloff and current consolidation near $0.118–$0.119, this strategy would suggest monitoring a potential long entry if price closes above $0.118 without breaking the upper Bollinger Band. A stop-loss could be placed below $0.113 to protect against a resumption of the downtrend. This approach appears consistent with the observed volatility contraction and Fibonacci alignment in the recent move.