Market Overview for ONEUSDT on 2025-11-05

Summary
• Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) experienced a bearish reversal from 0.00495 to 0.00468 before a late rally to 0.00496.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions, followed by a bullish crossover late in the session.
• Volume surged during the final 3-hour window, validating the recent price rebound.

Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) opened at 0.00495 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET, reaching a low of 0.00468 and a high of 0.00506 by the close of the 24-hour period. The pair settled at 0.00496 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05. Total volume for the day was 136,449,513.8 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $676,745 (volume × average price).

The structure of the past 24 hours shows a strong bearish breakdown followed by a measured bullish recovery. A notable bearish breakdown occurred between 17:00 and 20:30 ET, where price dropped from 0.00495 to 0.00468. A strong bullish reversal followed, marked by a series of higher highs and higher lows from 03:00 to 06:00 ET and again in the final 3 hours. A valid bullish engulfing pattern formed at 03:00 ET and a strong pinocchio candle at 05:15 ET hinted at exhaustion in the short sellers.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicate that price is currently above both the 20 and 50-period MAs, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits near 0.00487, aligning with a key support level. The 200-period MA at 0.00475 reinforces the bearish bias, but recent price action appears to be challenging it.

The RSI crossed below 30 during the early bearish phase, entering oversold territory, and then surged to 55 by the close, indicating a strong short-covering phase. The MACD crossed above the signal line at 05:15 ET, confirming bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands showed significant contraction during the 20:30–03:00 ET period, followed by a breakout that aligned with the volume-driven rally. Price is now trading near the upper band, suggesting heightened volatility and potential overbought conditions.

The 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements were tested at 0.00483 and 0.00476 during the bearish phase. The 0.00483 level appears to be a strong intermediate support, while the 0.00496 high suggests a potential short-term resistance.

Volume and turnover spiked during the final 3-hour window, confirming the bullish reversal. Notably, the 05:15 ET candle showed a high volume relative to its price range, indicating strong buying interest at a critical juncture. The correlation between price and volume is positive and aligns with the reversal pattern observed.

Backtest Hypothesis focuses on detecting and acting on Bullish-Engulfing patterns, which ONEUSDT displayed twice in the 24-hour window. These patterns typically signal a short-term reversal and can be used with a 3-day holding period for profit-taking. The methodology described applies well to this pair, and a refined backtest using the above patterns could help quantify potential returns. For ONEUSDT, such a strategy may have yielded gains during the late-session rally.