Market Overview: Ondo/Turkish Lira (ONDOTRY) - November 3, 2025

• Price dropped 5.8% on 24-hour 15-min data, forming bearish patterns.
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions, with momentum turning negative.
• Volatility spiked in the early hours as selling pressure intensified.
• Bollinger Bands indicate contraction before the sharp sell-off.
• Turnover surged during late-night hours, aligning with price declines.

Ondo/Turkish Lira (ONDOTRY) opened at 28.89 on November 2 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of 29.38, a low of 27.36, and closed at 27.60 at 12:00 ET on November 3. Total volume was 273,852.19, and total turnover reached 7,849,970.36 Turkish Lira over the 24-hour period. The price action reflects a strong bearish trend following several key candlestick patterns.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bearish engulfing pattern around 23:45 ET, where a large bearish candle swallowed the prior bullish bar. This was followed by a long lower shadow at 00:00 ET and a bearish trend continued with a series of lower highs and lower lows. A potential support level is forming near 27.36, marked by a bullish rebound at 04:00 ET. Resistance appears at 27.80 and 28.00, where price struggled to break through multiple times.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both fell below the price during the late-night sell-off, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period MA acted as a short-term resistance during the earlier bounce attempt. On a longer-term view, the 50, 100, and 200-day MAs are not available for this time period, but the short-term trend is clearly downward.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line late on November 2, signaling a bearish divergence. The histogram has been declining, showing waning bullish momentum. The RSI reached oversold territory at 29.55 in the early hours of November 3 but failed to trigger a strong reversal. This suggests that while the pair is oversold, the bearish pressure remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly during the sell-off phase, with the lower Bollinger Band reaching as low as 27.11. Price briefly touched the lower band before showing a slight rebound, indicating a potential short-term support area. The bands are currently in an expansion phase, reflecting increased market uncertainty and active bearish sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to 18,024.64 at 05:30 ET, coinciding with a sharp sell-off from 27.8 to 27.67. This confirms the bearish momentum. Notional turnover also spiked during the same period, reaching 517,769.21 Turkish Lira. The high volume during the downtrend suggests strong conviction in the bearish move rather than a base-building phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from 29.36 to 27.36, the 61.8% retracement level is at approximately 27.86. This level failed to hold during the early morning sell-off, indicating a potential breakdown in key support. The 38.2% level is at 28.26, which may now act as a resistance on any attempted rally.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern at 23:45 ET and the subsequent breakdown of key Fibonacci and Bollinger Band levels, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position at 29.12 with a stop-loss above 29.26 and a take-profit target at 27.36. This setup could be tested using additional 15-minute OHLC data from past 60-day cycles to evaluate its success rate and risk-reward profile.