Market Overview for Ondo/Turkish Lira (ONDOTRY)

Summary
• Price closed lower at 25.32 TRY after an early surge to 26.21 TRY.
• Volatility and volume spiked in the late NY session, indicating active price action.
• A bearish divergence in RSI and MACD suggests potential downward momentum.

Ondo/Turkish Lira (ONDOTRY) opened at 25.82 TRY on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET and reached an intraday high of 26.21 TRY before retreating to a low of 25.20 TRY. At 12:00 ET on 2025-11-06, the pair closed at 25.32 TRY. Over the 24-hour window, total traded volume amounted to 413,333.46 ONDO, with a notional turnover of approximately 10.53 million TRY (based on volume and average price).

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a strong bearish reversal pattern at 26.00 TRY, with a high-volume rejection of the 26.21 TRY level. A key support level emerged around 25.73 TRY, where the price found repeated buyers and buyers failed to push the price higher. A long lower shadow at 25.20 TRY and a bearish engulfing pattern near that level signal increased bearish sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price spent most of the day below both 20 and 50-period moving averages, with the 50-period line acting as dynamic resistance. Daily timeframes show a broader downward trend with the 50 and 200-period SMAs converging at 25.90 TRY, suggesting potential for further downward movement in the coming days.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines trended lower for most of the session, with the signal line crossing below the MACD line, reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI dipped below 30 toward the session’s end, entering oversold territory, but failed to generate a meaningful bounce. This may indicate exhaustion among longs and a potential for a continuation of the downward trend.

Bollinger Bands

Price action expanded outside the upper Bollinger Band at 26.21 TRY before retracting sharply, which often precedes a correction. At the close, price sat near the lower band at 25.20 TRY, indicating elevated volatility and a probable continuation of bearish momentum if support fails to hold.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked to over 21,000 ONDO in the 3–6 AM ET window, coinciding with a sharp decline in price. Notional turnover was lower than average during this period, suggesting a lack of conviction among sellers despite increased volume. Divergences between price and turnover suggest market uncertainty and potential reversal risks.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels of the 26.21 TRY to 25.20 TRY swing show 25.73 TRY at 38.2% and 25.46 TRY at 61.8%. The price found support at 25.73 TRY but failed to retest 25.46 TRY before dropping to 25.20 TRY. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level of the recent downtrend is near 25.25 TRY, which could act as a final support ahead of a potential bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could leverage the RSI reaching oversold levels as a buy signal. Given the recent RSI dip below 30 and the failure to generate a bounce, this strategy might not yield a profitable exit within the 5-day window. However, if volume and turnover confirm a bearish bias during the next 24 hours, such a signal could be misleading. Traders may need to pair RSI signals with volume and trend strength for more reliable entries.