Market Overview for Ondo/Turkish Lira (ONDOTRY) on 2025-10-26

• Price surged 4.2% on strong volume, breaking above 30.90 after a consolidation phase.
• RSI and MACD signaled growing momentum, suggesting a short-term bullish tilt.
• Volatility expanded in the 24-hour window, with a 31.14 high and 30.42 low observed.
• Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion, reflecting increased trader activity.
• Volume spiked 8.9x above the daily average during a key breakout near 31.14.

The Ondo/Turkish Lira (ONDOTRY) pair opened at 30.71 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 30.55 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour window saw a high of 31.14 and a low of 30.42, with the price finishing near the lower end of its range. Total volume reached 91,139.74, while notional turnover amounted to 2,837,206.35 TRY. Price action suggests increased buying interest earlier in the session, but a late sell-off eroded gains and pushed the pair into a bearish consolidation.

Structure & Formations

Price initially tested key resistance at 31.00, forming a bullish breakout candle at 31.09. However, a bearish reversal began at 31.14, marked by a long upper shadow and a declining close to 30.55. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 30.92 as price moved below the prior 15-minute high. Key support levels now appear at 30.55 and 30.42, with a potential test of the 30.37 level possible if the downward move continues.

Moving Averages and Volatility

A 15-minute chart shows the 20SMA and 50SMA in a bullish crossover at 30.90 around 20:30 ET, followed by a bearish crossover as price dipped below the 20SMA. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) appear to be converging around 30.75–30.85, indicating a potential area of indecision ahead. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the mid-session move to 31.14, then contracted during the late sell-off, signaling a potential exhaustion of momentum.

Momentum and Fibonacci Retracements

RSI reached a peak of 65 at 20:30 ET, then fell to 38 by 03:15 ET, showing a bearish shift in sentiment. MACD turned negative around 21:00 ET, with a bearish crossover confirming the downward trend. A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 31.14–30.42 move lies at 30.78, where price may find temporary support or resistance. The 61.8% level is at 30.59, aligning with a key 15-minute pivot point.

Volume and Turnover Insights

Volume spiked dramatically at 20:30 ET as price surged past 31.14, with a single 15-minute candle recording 71,391.22 volume and 2,235,626.56 TRY in turnover. This outperformed the 24-hour average volume by nearly 8x, indicating strong buying pressure. However, the subsequent decline saw volume remain elevated but with lower turnover, suggesting some profit-taking or liquidity exhaustion. A divergence between volume and price may signal the potential for a reversal or continuation, depending on the next directional move.

Backtest Hypothesis

To further validate the bearish reversal observed in the late session, a MACD top divergence strategy would be useful. This strategy identifies situations where price makes a new high but MACD fails to confirm, signaling a potential trend reversal. However, our current data query for “MACD top divergence” for ONDOTRY failed, likely due to data source limitations or symbol inconsistencies. To proceed, we could either verify the correct symbol/exchange (e.g., ONDO/TRY on Binance or KuCoin), or manually compute MACD values from the provided OHLC data to detect divergences algorithmically. This would allow a robust backtest, aligning with the observed bearish reversal patterns.