Market Overview for Ondo/Turkish Lira (ONDOTRY) – 2025-10-19

• Price surged past 30.00 TRY, reaching a 24-hour high of 31.51 TRY after forming strong bullish structures.
• Volatility spiked sharply during Asian trading hours with a 7.4% move from 30.00 to 31.51 TRY.
• Turnover increased 3x during the final 3 hours, with 10k+ volume in key 15-minute bars.
• RSI crossed into overbought territory near 76, suggesting potential for a near-term pullback.
• Key support at 30.00 and resistance at 31.51 are now defined, with price consolidating near the upper band.

The Ondo/Turkish Lira (ONDOTRY) pair opened at 29.91 TRY at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 30.49 TRY at 12:00 ET today. The 24-hour range spanned from a low of 29.00 TRY to a high of 31.51 TRY, with total volume of 156,625.13 and a notional turnover of 4,748,510.04 TRY. Price action exhibited a strong morning reversal from 29.91 to 30.24 TRY, followed by a breakout above 31.00 TRY in the late afternoon, driven by a sharp volume spike in the 13:45–14:00 ET window.

Key support levels appear to be forming at 30.00 TRY and 29.91 TRY, with a 50-period 15-minute moving average currently sitting at 30.15 TRY. The 20-period MA, at 30.28 TRY, acts as a dynamic resistance. Price has moved above both indicators, signaling a bullish bias. A 100-period daily MA at 30.07 TRY and a 200-period MA at 29.98 TRY are both being approached from above, suggesting the pair remains in a short-term uptrend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered overbought territory, reaching 76 during the late afternoon, indicating a possible short-term pullback. The MACD crossed into positive territory with a clear bullish divergence in volume, signaling strong buying pressure. Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion during the 13:30–14:30 ET window, with price closing above the upper band, indicating high volatility and a strong move.

Volume and turnover spiked in the afternoon, with the largest single 15-minute bar at 10,002.66 in the 13:45–14:00 ET timeframe. This was accompanied by a 2.6% move to 31.00 TRY. No major divergence was observed between price and volume, suggesting the move is supported by real demand. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 29.91–31.51 swing suggest key support at 30.75 (38.2%) and 30.36 (61.8%), both of which appear to be holding as price consolidates.

The backtest hypothesis is based on a 15-minute candlestick strategy using the Bullish Engulfing pattern as an entry signal. This pattern was triggered multiple times in the dataset, including at 16:30 ET and 20:00 ET, with strong follow-through volume. The strategy assumes a fixed holding period of 5 trading days and uses daily close prices for returns calculation. Over the 24-hour period, the pattern showed high conviction entries, especially in the context of an upward trend and strong volume spikes. A backtest incorporating this rule would likely have generated positive returns during the 13:45–14:00 ET breakout, given the pattern’s appearance and the subsequent move above 31.00 TRY. This suggests that the strategy aligns well with the current market conditions and could be a viable short-term approach in similar setups.