Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Yen (TRUMPJPY): Volatility and Oversold Momentum

• TRUMPJPY dropped 18.5% 24-hour low of 836.0 after strong early selling pressure, with bearish momentum accelerating post-21:00 ET.
• RSI hit oversold territory below 30, suggesting potential short-term rebound, though 20-period MA remains bearish.
• Volume spiked during the decline, confirming bearish sentiment, but turnover diverged with weaker price follow-through in rebound.
• Bollinger Bands showed contraction prior to the sharp drop, signaling increased volatility.
• Key support levels identified at 836.0 and 820.0, with resistance at 873.0 and 895.0 for a potential short-term bounce.

24-Hour Price Action and Volume Summary

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Yen (TRUMPJPY) opened at 1099.0 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1104.0, and fell to a low of 836.0 before closing at 910.0 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. The pair experienced strong bearish pressure during the overnight session, with total volume of 4,245.73 and total turnover of 3,793,230.82 JPY over the 24-hour window. The price action suggests significant selling, particularly after 21:00 ET, leading to a 18.5% drop from the session high.

Structure and Key Levels

The candlestick structure reveals a bearish trend with a large bearish reversal candle at 21:15 ET, followed by a continuation of selling pressure into the overnight hours. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed at 21:45 ET, confirming the trend shift. Support levels appear at 836.0 (current low), 820.0, and 800.0, with 873.0 and 895.0 acting as initial resistance levels on a potential rebound. A doji formed at 01:15 ET, indicating indecision and a potential pause in bearish momentum.

20-Period and 50-Period Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA is bearish and remains below the 50-period MA, reinforcing the downtrend. The 50-period MA has acted as a resistance line during the overnight recovery attempts, indicating that sellers remain in control. The price is currently below both MAs, suggesting that the bearish bias continues.

MACD and RSI Analysis

The MACD is bearish with a negative histogram, indicating weakening bullish momentum. The RSI hit oversold territory below 30, hinting at potential exhaustion of bearish pressure and the possibility of a short-term rebound. However, the RSI has not yet crossed back into neutral or bullish territory, so a full reversal is unlikely without a clear break above 873.0 and 895.0.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands show a contraction prior to the sharp drop, signaling a period of low volatility that preceded a breakout. The price has since remained well below the lower band, indicating high volatility and strong bearish momentum. A retest of the upper band at 910.0 would be necessary for a short-term reversal, but this is unlikely without a significant volume increase.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume surged during the initial drop, with large spikes at 21:45 ET and 22:30 ET, confirming the bearish move. However, turnover did not increase proportionally during the recent rebound attempts, suggesting weak demand. A divergence between volume and price could signal a potential short-term bounce, but confirmation will require a breakout above key resistance levels with a corresponding rise in turnover.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute swing from 1104.0 to 836.0 indicate key levels at 38.2% (948.0), 50.0% (970.0), and 61.8% (993.0). A bounce above 910.0 could target the 948.0 level, but without a strong volume confirmation, a pullback is likely.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish momentum and oversold RSI, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry at the break of 836.0 with a stop above 843.0 and a target at 820.0. Alternatively, a long trade could be triggered on a breakout above 910.0, using the 948.0 Fibonacci level as a target. The strategy would require filtering by volume and turnover divergence to avoid false signals.